Saturday, January 12, 2019

December global surface anomaly up 0.038°C from November - ECMWF reanalysis

Usually I would have my analyses out by now, but as explained, the data I need is not available yet due to the US government shutdown. I'll post, with 2018 discussion, when they are available. However, the ECMWF, via Copernicus, is not subject to that shutdown, and their reanalysis data is out. A CSV listing of monthly global and European surface average is here. Relative to 1981-2010, November was 0.430°C; December was 0.468°C.

A description of relevant ECMWF data on average monthly temperature is here.

I won't try to summarise the features of the month; ECMWF has a very detailed description in their December report. I'll just show their map, which includes Europe too:

The ECMWF also reports on the year's result; 2018 was the fourth warmest year in the record, after 2016, 2017, 2015. Details and links here. Most surface records including TempLS will report the same ranking.


  1. I've been tracking monthly GMSTA from both ERAI adjusted and CFSV2 and they both compare well to the various land air plus SST composite indices since 2011 when CFSV2 started. I have not seen the ERAI adjusted GMST data, so I don't know how the actual 2-meter above ground air temperature output compares with CFSV2. Today I ran across news of a new variable resolution global weather model from IBM called GRAF. It will have up to 3 km resolution over high population areas of interest. More details here.

  2. I forgot to mention, because of my long time interest in tropical cyclones, I've also been following output from ICON available at Tropical Tidbits. ICON is a global icosahedral weather model described here. And here is a sample Tropical Tidbits output for Australia temperature today. I have not seen any GMST or GMSTA output from this model, but it should be feasible.

  3. Thanks Nick. How hard was it to retool to use ECMWF?

    1. Hi Carrick,
      I'm just relaying ECMWF reported results here.

      I did look at what I'd have to do to replace NCEP/NCAR with ECMWF. Mainly it's just a lot more data to download - 4 per day, finer grid. Better resolution, but a global integral doesn't really need that. And there is the timing issue - here Copernicus is reporting on the 12th, but with N-N I usually report on the 3rd.

    2. Nick,
      Karsten Hausteins NCEP/ NCAR is running as usual, 2-3 days behind:

      So there must be a way to get the NCEP/NCAR data. Karsten's data are 2m air temp, 4 times daily, but I'm sure that the production of sig 995 also continues as usual..
      You could ask Karsten where he gets his data from..

      Another alternative is JRA-55. Ryan Maue did a compilation of four times daily data, running 2-3 days behind. I used to follow it but it is not free (or I can't find it ) anymore..

    3. Thanks, Olof,
      I could get the data from NCAR, but would need to register. I'll probably do that if the shutdown looks like running into next month.