Friday, December 16, 2016

GISS rose 0.07°C in November.

GISS is up from 0.88°C in October to 0.95°C in November. That is similar to the NCEP/NCAR rise, but contrasts with a small drop in TempLS mesh and a larger one in TempLS grid. I think a lot of the changes this month will reflect the different treatment of the October freeze in Siberia and warmth in the Arctic.

Of course, the alt-news headlines, even tweeted by the US House Science Committee, was that "world average temperatures have plummeted since the middle of the year at a faster and steeper rate than at any time in the recent past". No sign of that on closer inspection. Here is my plot comparing 2015/6 with 1997/8. It's from this post, where you can see other datasets similarly plotted:

Another point of interest at this time of year is whether 2016 will be a record. Actually, not much interest; it seems certain in most indices. I've been tracking that at a post here qv for details); I'll echo it here. The faint lines that extend data is how the average will progress if temperatures continue at current month level:

I'll show the regular GISS plot and TempLS comparison below the fold

Here is the GISS map for the month

The Moyhu spherical harmonics map is here:

GISS is more pronounced in the Arctic and Canada, which is probably the main cause of discrepancy.

Sea Ice is still low. I think the Antarctic situation is the one to watch. It's low and dropping fast, with a minimum coming up.


  1. And... JIASO PDO for November just rocketed from October's .56 to 1.88. The globe is not cooling down... it's preparing to get very warm in 2017. Looks like 2nd warmest in the record is now plausible.

    1. Yes, exactly as predicted in Meehl, Hu & Teng: ”Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation”, published in Nature Communications (open access) in june.

  2. The GISS temperature in Nov16 are down by 0.01°C for most months in last years compared to Oct16 data. The D-N is 1.02°C above the 1°C anomaly. It's likely that J-D2016 will not above 1°C because of the shift and the probably cooling in Dec. If the year on year drop in GISS is the same as in the NCEP GFS forecast up to now, Dec will by around 0.79°C. The prediction by my regression model for Dec16 is 0.75+-0.17°C.