Tuesday, October 18, 2016

GISS down 0.06°C in September

GISS is down from 0.97°C in August to 0.91°C in September. This compares with a larger fall of 0.12° in TempLS mesh, and contrasts with the small rise in the NCEP/NCAR index. It is still the warmest September in the record (just ahead of 0.90°C in 2014). It really hasn't cooled since May, and a record hot 2016 is ever more likely.

As I mentioned in the TempLS post, the dominant effect on recent changes is Antarctica. TempLS rose strongly in Aug, and dropped in Sep; GISS responded in the same way, but to about half the extent. I expect NOAA and HADCRUT to be less affected again.

I'll show the map comparisons below the fold. The updated comparison plots with 1998 are here

Here is the GISS map for the month

The Moyhu spherical harmonics map is here:


  1. Prediction one month ago was 1.00+-0.17, with the TempLS 0.89, now it is 0.91. This would be the 12th month in a row with a new record, if note the June go down to 0.75. It is very close to the end if the year will be above or below 1.00.

  2. Once again, the difference between surface and UAH's interpretation of the troposphere is simply amazing:


    1. Could you elaborate? The areas with hotspots and coldspots seem to match up reasonably well. Baselines are different so we wouldn't expect an exact match.

    2. Are you really serious? GISS' baseline difference wrt UAH is below 0.5 °C, and a look at the hot spots shows for many of them a difference of at least +2 °C. I won't even mention the Peninsula...