The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index from the reanalysis data was up from 0.306°C to 0.368°C in September. That makes September warmer by a large margin (0.05°C) than anything in that index in recent years. It looked likely to be even warmer, but cooled off a bit at the end.
A similar rise in GISS would bring it to 0.87°C. Putting the NCEP index on the 1951-1980 base (using GISS) would make it 0.95°C. I'd expect something in between. GISS' hottest month anomaly was Jan 2007 at 0.97°C. Hottest September (GISS) was in 2014, at 0.90°C. It was the hottest month of 2014.
The global map shows something unusual - warmth in the US and Eastern Canada. And a huge warm patch in the E Pacific. Mostly cold in Antarctica and Australia, but very warm in E Europe up to the Urals, and in Middle East.
They Just Won’t Leave the Kids Alone
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I was recently pointed to a new paper from Willie Soon, Ronan Connolly and Michael Connolly.
ReplyDeletehttp://globalwarmingsolved.com/data_files/SCC2015_preprint.pdf
This is another "Hoyt & Schatten matches temperature better than GHG" paper. Other than using H+S, which I thought was long considered obsolete, the paper references a new temperature series from the Connollys that purports to remove UHI. This is documented in a series of open access papers:
http://oprj.net/articles/climate-science/28
http://oprj.net/articles/climate-science/31
http://oprj.net/articles/climate-science/34
I haven't read them yet, but I thought this would be of some interest.
Looks like the paper is just submitted to ESR at this stage. I would wait to see if it is accepted.
DeleteIt's published
Deletehttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825215300349
Seen on your NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data :
ReplyDeleteon Oct 4 : +0.697 !!!!!!!!!!
Precurser to the stadium wave so global cooling is right around the corner.
DeleteYes. And average for the month is 0.588. That is 1.2°C on the GISS scale. Of course, it's early days for October.
DeleteI can attest to local warmth, though. After our hottest Grand Final (end of winter fotty season), we had the last two days reaching 35°C, just a fortnight after the equinox. And bushfires. Homes lost. Actually, spring heat is a sign here of El Nino. But this is early.
Its 0.782 C now, Oct 5. The heat is not near the Nino zones though, rather in the Arctic and Antarctic, Southern Australia, Iran etc.
DeleteI don't expect Giss to rise more than 0.04 from August, because NCEP/NCAR land has cooled, and ERSST is cooler than NCEP/NCAR ocean.
NIck, TempLSmesh is 0.05 cooler than August with reports from a majority of the large countries in, whereas TempLSgrid show similar temps Aug vs Sep. Several African countries, Alaska, Peru, Bolivia remain though. Anyway, the mesh version is running almost 0.1 below expectations. Have you implemented the cubic grid yet(with possible "beta" errors)?
Olof,
DeleteI haven't changed TempLS recently; the cubic mesh would affect the grid version, but there I'll probably add the infill, which will have a bigger effect.
Yes, the drop is surprising. The contributions plot shows an effect from very cold Antarctica. Maybe there is more data to come there. TempLS went up in August more than others, so maybe there is an element of correction. TempLS grid is about steady.
... So GISS scale would be around 1,4°C on the 4th (individually). I've seen on Weatherbell website that the anomaly for NCEP CFSv2 seems to be still rising. On october 6th (month to date) it was +0,56°C while august (whole) was +0,27.
ReplyDeleteSomething's maybe changing in the southern hemisphere actually. I wonder if it's the real start of El Nino's warming.
ENSO ONI was just posted at 1.5, so it's on. Last three months are likely to burners. Time will tell. The PDO has been trending down (the likely reason for the sag in anomalies so far this year), but I think September will be the end of that trend.
Delete