This post is a bit late this month. I've been holding it waiting for GHCN results from China and Canada. China has finally come in - still no Canada. Anyway, the TempLS mesh index was 0.717°C, slightly up from Feb 0.698.
One reason for delay was that I had predicted a slight rise, and I didn't want that result to be unsettled. The margin was very fine, but China raised it somewhat. It's still possible that Canada could bring it down.
As mentioned in earlier posts, although temperatures are not changing rapidly, they are very warm. The first three months of 2015 were each warmer than any month of 2014 (thanks, MMM). The NCEP/NCAR index for April has a sudden dip.
The greatest warmth was in the North - Siberia and Canada, extending into N Europe and W Canada. Coldest was again East N America, and also a patch in N Atlantic. Troposphere measures (UAH and RSS) were down slightly, but Roy Spencer noted a similar pattern. Surface coldness was less extreme in E N America.
Sunday, April 12, 2015
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Once you get rid of February 2014, assuming March is .81C, it's basically a plateau around .75C for the last 8 months. It's going to take some big anomalies to get it off that level. April looks pretty cool so far.
ReplyDeleteIt's possible the great ENSO neutral heatwave has made up the ground it is capable of making up.
I wouldn't doubt it. ENSO behavior exists on a continuum and likely the only factors that provoke a large El Nino spike is alignment of the forcing and resonant conditions.
DeleteAlso no doubt that we can figure this out soon http://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/comment/14488/#Comment_14488
I noted that NCEP/NCAR had a temp dip at start April (now showing some recovery). The JAXA Arctic Sea Ice, which had been vying with 2007 for fastest melting, showed some re-freeze during that time.
ReplyDelete"were each warmer than most months of 2014": Since Jan 2015 is 0.675, and the warmest month I see for 2014 is May at 0.674, then shouldn't this be "were each warmer than ANY month of 2014"? (I mean, I understand there's uncertainty - see arguments about whether 2014 was a record warmest year in GIStemp - but personally, I think for "ranking" purposes, we should use the numbers as they are)
ReplyDeleteAlso: is 2014 the warmest year in TEMPLSmesh? If it is, that makes this 3-month opening stretch of warmth that much more impressive...
As long as I'm quibbling here: in your 7:48 pm comment, shouldn't that be that sea ice extent was vying with 2007 for lowest ice extent of the date? Since the peak of extent was not very high, I'm guessing that other years had faster melting (e.g., derivative of extent).
-MMM
MMM,
Delete"were each warmer than ANY month of 2014"
You're right - I'll fix that. I was thinking of the NCEP index, where May 2014 is higher.
Yes, 2014 was the warmest year for both TempLS measures. The warmest month for mesh was Mar 2010.
On the ice comment, I meant that day by day the 2015 curve had been tracking the 2007 curve in the lead till early April, then there was a re-melt, and 2015 dropped back.
remelt = refreeze.
DeleteStill no Canada? The guy responsible for reporting to GHCN should be back from the Easter vacation now :-) However, the Canada anomalies for March looks quite neutral and should not affect global values very much.
ReplyDeleteI hope that Canada has not got the Swedish disease.. Our weather service produce excellent anomaly data, e.g March 2015: http://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.86727.1428575347!/image/tmp_avv1503_1503.png_gen/derivatives/Original_1004px/tmp_avv1503_1503.png
but sadly they fail in communicating their data to the international climate databases, which makes Sweden a white spot on the global climate maps
Since april 2014 SMHI have stubbornly sent CLIMAT forms in the new BUFR code that no one can read, and no one really cares.. (except me)
Olof,
DeleteIt's a puzzle. The CLIMAT files are on display at OGIMET, and seem complete. But I've checked the original GHCN V3 file. Not only are March values missing, but Jan and Feb have a K flag, which means "received by the UK Met Office". It seems GHCN aren't using the Canada climat forms in 2015.
Darn it, I was hoping for a tiny boost. Scandinava should have been captured and made part of a sensible empire centuries ago!
DeleteWell, the results from Canada just arrived and cooled the TempLSmesh-index with 0.011, but it is still up 0.010 compared to February. NOAA MLOST looks like a two-decimal tie with February (0.55) http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/png/mlost.13mon.bar.png
ReplyDeleteThus, my best guess for GISS in March is 0.79-0.80
Sounds about right,
DeleteOlof. Still would make the 8-months ended March 31, 2015 come out at .75C on GISS. That's a pretty good springboard for much higher El Nino temperature anomalies in the last half of the year.
Giss came in at .84 for March, Feb was lowered to .78. 2015 begins at .79 for the first quarter of the year.
ReplyDelete-TC
As Paris Hilton would say, that's hot.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Judith Curry will tell congress that the current 8-month anomaly is .75C?
Yes that's hot. Bad guess by me. Giss surprised once again with a strong development. We have a new running 12-month record, and 2015 year-to-date temps are 0.12 above the 2014 average.
ReplyDeleteI guessed .83C, and next month they'll probably reduce the .84C to .83C, so I'm right!
ReplyDelete