After earlier (false) signs of a greater rise, with 3833 stations reporting, TempLS mesh has risen from 0.591 in Nov to 0.636 in Dec 2014. The Nov number rose a little with later data, so Dec is now back to October levels. The report is here.
The Ncep/Ncar index showed a similar fall/rise, but only came back to about August level. GISS should track the TempLS mesh level reasonably, so a record is likely there, as with NOAA. HADCRUT remains uncertain.
Greenhouse Forces
25 minutes ago
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Ryan Maue pointed out something similar on twitter:
ReplyDeleteFor whatever reason (MJO ?) global tropical temperatures have fallen well below normal (1981-2010)
Daily trace:
figure
It's been known for a while that there's a seasonal synchronization of ENSO, so possibly this is related.
Yes, that is interesting. I have'nt tried to regionalize, but the CFS global track is very similar to NCEP/NCAR.
DeleteThe seasonal synchronization paper is based on Stein's recent PhD thesis which describes a second-order differential equation with forcing terms. I have looked at this extensively but ignored his non-linear damping. The most important forcing term is the QBO which has a period of 2.33 years. Every 3 cycles this will repeat on a 7 year boundary, which is the closest to a yearly synchronization term required.
Deletehttp://contextearth.com/2014/11/18/paper-on-sloshing-model-for-enso/
Nick, Happy New Year and a big thank you for all your data visualisations that have done so much to clarify what the data actually show rather than what they are purported to show. Unfortunately, your global temperature series plots are becoming hard to decipher as the number of series increases. Among other things the legend on the "last 4 years" plot now obscures part of the plot itself. Could you move the legend below the graph, and perhaps use a wider range of colours and perhaps dashed lines in some cases?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Bill. Actually, that was a bug with the plots, which I think I have now fixed. It should be back to as it was. It's hard to find a good fixed position for the legend. I'll see if I can devise something adaptive.
DeleteAnd best wishes for the New Year to you. It's almost the fourth anniversary of the Lisbon meeting. I think the benefits have faded.
Good read from Mann here:
ReplyDeletehttp://bos.sagepub.com/content/71/1/33.full.pdf
"The Serengeti strategy: How special interests try to intimidate scientists, and how best to fight back"