Thursday, January 16, 2020

GISS December global up by 0.11°C from November.

The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly rose by 0.11°C from November to December 2019 (1.0 to 1.11°C). That compared with a 0.083deg;C rise in the TempLS V4 mesh index (now 0.093°C with later data). AS with TempLS, it was the second warmest December in the GISS record, only 0.05°C lower than 2015.

That completes the data for 2019, and you can read the joint NOAA/GISS presentation here. Their results were in close agreement, and both agreed with TempLS that it was the second warmest year after 2016, and not far behind. GISS and NOAA both said it was 0.04°C behind. TempLS put the difference at 0.034deg;C.

RealClimate has a post here.

The overall pattern was similar to that in TempLS, as shown below.

As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.

Here is GISS V4

And here is the TempLS V4 LOESS-based plot

This post is part of a series that has now run for seven years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports here, and I post the monthly averages here.
The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.

The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.

A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:
  1. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report
  2. TempLS report
  3. GISS report and comparison with TempLS


  1. There is again a new year. And again the prediction using my model went very well.
    The first prediction of GISS.v4 from Jan19 was 0.97+-0.10 and except the Feb19 (0.95+-0.10) and Mar19 (1.00+-0.08) predictions all were within 0.01 of the value of 0.98 now for the year 2019.

    For the year 2020 the prediction were between 0.99 ans 1.02 up to now.
    Now it is 1.02+-0.11 with a fifty-fifty chance of a new record this year.

    I update my prediction for GISS temperature anomaly using data up to Dec19.
    DJF20 1.10+-0.14
    MAM20 1.08+-0.17
    JJA20 0.91+-0.13
    SON20 1.04+-0.15
    J-D20 1.02+-0.11

  2. "second warmest year since 2016"

    Are you sure that's what you meant? There have only been 3 years since 2016. Do you mean "second warmest after 2016"?