Tuesday, August 16, 2016

GISS up 0.05°C in July

GISS is up from 0.79°C in June to 0.84°C in July. This compares with a small fall of 0.02° in TempLS, and is very close to the posted, 0.045°C rise in the NCEP/NCAR index. It is also the warmest July in the record (next was 0.74°C in 2011). The increase matches the 0.05°C rise in the UAH V6 lower troposphere, while RSS was unchanged.

I'll show the map comparisons below the fold. The updated comparison plots with 1998 are here. Since all months so far in 2016 have been individual records, many by a large margin,  a record 2016 is looking very likely.

Here is the GISS map for the month



The Moyhu spherical harmonics map is here:





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5 comments:

  1. AnonymousAugust 17, 2016 at 1:42 AM

    2016 is certainly likely to be a record in GISS. Looking at the 12 month running mean, it has blown past any previous record. But even the satellite datasets look like 12 month running mean records, with RSS just exceeding its 1998 peak and UAH actually pretty far over (which I haven't seen any mention of elsewhere?) (I recognize that woodfortrees is using older satellite datasets, so I should check if the new satellites match)
    http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/mean:12/plot/uah/mean:12/plot/gistemp/from:1979/mean:12

    -MMM

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  2. LayzejAugust 17, 2016 at 4:17 AM

    UAH v6 beta enhances 1998 and dampens recent temperatures relative to V5.6. It is not so clear that 2016 will be a record in V6.x though it is a clear winner in v5.6

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  3. AnonymousAugust 17, 2016 at 5:05 AM

    Looks like the 13th month average for v6 is pretty close to a tie... http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2016_v6.jpg

    -MMM

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  4. JCHAugust 17, 2016 at 5:36 AM

    On to August. Almost halfway, and it's above July... and teasingly close to 1.0 ℃. The reluctant La Niña is still being coy. Is the 7-day forecast proving itself to be very accurate?

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  5. @whutAugust 19, 2016 at 1:36 PM

    The CSALT model trained to 2013, and with extended SOI to 2016 looks like this
    http://imageshack.com/a/img922/9662/e2AFlb.png

    The general idea is that the monotonic trending of CO2 combined with the known cyclic factors are enough to project global temperature. So if we can understand the cyclic factors such as ENSO, the simple models will work very well.




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