Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Neven has been tracking a big storm in the Arctic. This now seems to be having, as he predicted, an effect on the ice melt. The recent IJIS JAXA numbers show a very big drop over two days. In fact, there is almost the same ice extent now as on the same day of 2007, and less than any other year (in the period of readings since 2002) and the storm is far from spent. This is rather ominous, because in 2007 the most rapid melting was up to the first week in August, with slower melting thereafter.
I should caveat that the IJIS latest day reading is often adjusted down the next day. Neven doesn't usually show it. I'm less cautious, but you should bear this in mind.
Update 8/8. Yesterday's high JAXA melt figure held up, and another big one today, makes 2012 pass 2007 to show the least ever JAXA ice extent for 8/8. Each of the last three days well exceeds any other day's melting in the JAXA record.