tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post8366052206341448321..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: Prospects for 2017.Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger95125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-52766181680904307372017-12-31T10:46:41.597+11:002017-12-31T10:46:41.597+11:00I think it can be safely called. 2017 will be the ...I think it can be safely called. 2017 will be the 2nd warmest year in the GISS record, and since Dec looks to be warmer than Nov, it's pulling away. JCHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-79322501756964324922017-12-20T03:38:28.758+11:002017-12-20T03:38:28.758+11:00I update my prediction using data up to Nov17.
J-D...I update my prediction using data up to Nov17.<br />J-D17 0.89+-0.02<br />DJF18 0.76+-0.17<br />MAM18 0.89+-0.18<br />JJA18 0.78+-0.15<br />SON18 0.88+-0.16<br />J-D18 0.82(+-0.13)Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-10812843456977690332017-11-18T00:22:02.012+11:002017-11-18T00:22:02.012+11:00I update my prediction using data up to Oct17.
J-D...I update my prediction using data up to Oct17.<br />J-D17 0.89+-0.03<br />SON17 0.84+-0.05<br />DJF18 0.77+-0.17<br />MAM18 0.84+-0.17<br />JJA18 0.77+-0.15<br />SON18 0.89(+-0.16)<br />J-D18 0.82(+-0.13)<br />The probability, if my error is correct, and past estimates do not change, that 2017 will be the second warmest year is now about 95%.<br />I attempt a prediction for the year 2018. The error is an underestimate, because I assumed that the final values of J-D17 and SON17 are exactly as predicted. Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-27574504543393170862017-10-18T19:55:45.714+11:002017-10-18T19:55:45.714+11:00I update my prediction using data up to Sep17.
J-D...I update my prediction using data up to Sep17.<br />J-D17 0.88+-0.03<br />SON17 0.83+-0.08<br />DJF18 0.75+-0.17<br />MAM18 0.83+-0.17<br />JJA18 0.79+-0.15Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-62950084893497380962017-09-19T20:01:24.819+10:002017-09-19T20:01:24.819+10:00I update my prediction using data up to Aug17.
J-D...I update my prediction using data up to Aug17.<br />J-D17 0.89+-0.04<br />SON17 0.87+-0.12<br />DJF18 0.80+-0.19<br />MAM18 0.86+-0.17<br />JJA18 0.80+-0.15<br />Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-81014546440560393962017-08-23T22:33:05.862+10:002017-08-23T22:33:05.862+10:00There is a way to show that any two time intervals...There is a way to show that any two time intervals show the same underlying forcing. So, if we split up the modern-day ENSO time series into approximately equivalent 70 year intervals, we find essentially the same forcing.<br /><a href="http://contextearth.com/2017/08/08/enso-split-training-for-cross-validation/" rel="nofollow">http://contextearth.com/2017/08/08/enso-split-training-for-cross-validation/</a><br /><br />What's more, the same general forcing is found for all the ENSO proxy records, going back hundreds of years.<br /><br />This is not necessarily the easiest thing to do because the ENSO data is susceptible to noise, as cyclones passing through the area will cause fluctuations in the temperature and pressure data. Note that it is not possible to get much higher than 0.8 for a correlation coefficient between the NINO34 data and the SOI time-series data.<br /><br />Bottom line is that there is absolutely zero evidence that AGW has any impact on the ENSO behavior. Any research articles that try to show this are suspect, especially since they have no clue to the underlying lunar tidal mechanism. It's the blind leading the blind as far as I am concerned.<br /><br /><br /><br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-60108194315844690612017-08-23T16:30:08.112+10:002017-08-23T16:30:08.112+10:00If atlantic ocean warming led to a strengthening o...If atlantic ocean warming led to a strengthening of the trade winds then it's not circular, it's a forcing. That's if you agree atlantic warming is anthropogenic.Pepnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-20436839053354797952017-08-23T13:12:04.951+10:002017-08-23T13:12:04.951+10:00The understanding is really this bad concerning th...The understanding is really this bad concerning the cause of ENSO. It's as if an ignorant engineer ascribed the reason for a potential buildup being caused by the electrical current running through the circuit. Yet invariably the situation is the converse: the current is the result of the external voltage applied.<br /><br />Replace electrical current with wind, and that's the state-of-the-art with respect to the science of ENSO. @whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-54757360192538236312017-08-23T07:48:56.369+10:002017-08-23T07:48:56.369+10:00What causes the cyclical shifts in winds?
Peopl...What causes the cyclical shifts in winds? <br /><br />People that are outside climate science see these circular arguments and just shake their head.<br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-65128978219572280582017-08-23T06:46:44.996+10:002017-08-23T06:46:44.996+10:00OK, but you probably agree that the western Pacifi...OK, but you probably agree that the western Pacific warmed a lot during the so-called hiatus while at the same time anomalous trade winds were observed. What about the Atlantic ocean warming ? With such warming, the ascending air of the Atlantic tends to dip over the eastern Pacific, reinforcing atmospheric pressure in this region. The enormous difference in pressure between the Atlantic and the Pacific has led to an unprecedented intensification of the trade winds, according to a New South Wales study in 2014.Pepnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-44894545240106671502017-08-22T22:30:03.613+10:002017-08-22T22:30:03.613+10:00Meehl's model for ENSO is but one of many and ...Meehl's model for ENSO is but one of many and it doesn't explain what causes that buildup. Just another dog-chasing-its-tail theory.<br /><br /><i>"QBO may help trigger eastward flow"</i><br /><br />Now you're talking. QBO is clearly forced by the nodal lunar cycle, which is also the main ingredient behind ENSO forcing. This provides either a common mode or a cooperative mechanism, whereby QBO winds and lunar forcing reinforce ENSO.<br /><br />Not widely appreciated, but tides are a significant contribution to ocean circulation:<br /><i>"In any case, tidal mixing (including internal waves due to tidal flow) may be the most important energy source driving the thermohaline circulation. Without tidal mixing, there would be virtually no stratification or motion in the deep ocean. For example, a large basin without midocean ridges, or an imaginary planet earth without the moon would have a dramatically different thermohaline circulation and climate. "</i><br /><br />from:<br />Mixing and Energetics of the Oceanic Thermohaline Circulation: <br />Journal of Physical Oceanography: Vol 29, No 4 <br />http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029%3C0727:MAEOTO%3E2.0.CO%3B2<br /><br />Perfectly reasonable to assume that lunar tidal force can impact ENSO just as it impacts the entire ocean. <br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-6044064614073080142017-08-22T18:06:00.566+10:002017-08-22T18:06:00.566+10:00What about Gerald Meehl's explaining warm wate...What about Gerald Meehl's explaining warm waters buildup in the western pacific provides the fuel to IPO transitions ? This explanation seems quite supported by the facts. A big El Nino like the last one could then kick a positive IPO, according to Meehl.Then, El Nino events are more likely as well with an accelerated warming trend in the coming years.<br />El Nino's uncknowed causes ? A weakening of the trade winds is still a cause, and it has to happen sometime anyway. QBO may help trigger eastward flow, even if it's only an ingredient. And so positive wind-ocean feedback.<br />Maybe we still don't know exactly when El Nino will happen again, it seems it is possible to say it is more likely in the coming years. And La Nina less likely ?Pepnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-82431715788198345052017-08-22T10:15:10.360+10:002017-08-22T10:15:10.360+10:00Yet, if we understand the mechanism behind ocean t...Yet, if we understand the mechanism behind ocean tides, that it is the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon, we can do a much better job of prediction. <br /><br />The NYT suggests that climate science can make predictions as well as geophysicists can predict eclipses:<br /><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/18/climate/should-you-trust-climate-science-maybe-the-eclipse-is-a-clue.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/18/climate/should-you-trust-climate-science-maybe-the-eclipse-is-a-clue.html</a> <br /><br />But that's only true if climate science turns into a basic geophysics problem, on the complexity of tides.<br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-2946368700619823242017-08-22T05:26:18.363+10:002017-08-22T05:26:18.363+10:00Check that.
The closer one gets to a peak or vall...Check that.<br /><br />The closer one gets to a peak or valley, the safer it is to make a dead reckoning guess. For example, I can say a low tide is coming if it is coming off a high tide -- even if I have no idea what causes tides.<br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-75240678372016382452017-08-22T01:56:43.015+10:002017-08-22T01:56:43.015+10:00How does anyone know which way the ENSO behavior i...How does anyone know which way the ENSO behavior is heading if there is not a clear understanding of the underlying mechanism? (and wind is not a mechanism because that needs a mechanism)<br /><br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-64094253129694608902017-08-22T01:38:58.381+10:002017-08-22T01:38:58.381+10:00Looks like we're heading for La Nina going int...Looks like we're heading for La Nina going into Winter. That means I expect 2018 will not average much different from 2017, both close to 2015 level. Then a probable new record in 2019.PaulSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-13970287756769975712017-08-21T20:42:43.706+10:002017-08-21T20:42:43.706+10:00I update my prediction using data up to Jul17.
J-D...I update my prediction using data up to Jul17.<br />J-D17 0.90+-0.05<br />JJA17 0.79+-0.06<br />SON17 0.89+-0.14<br />DJF18 0.83+-0.19<br />MAM18 0.90+-0.18Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-41205120753583525592017-07-19T17:41:59.664+10:002017-07-19T17:41:59.664+10:00I update my prediction using data up to Jun17.
J-D...I update my prediction using data up to Jun17.<br />J-D17 0.89+-0.05<br />JJA17 0.76+-0.08<br />SON17 0.91+-0.14<br />DJF18 0.85+-0.18<br />MAM18 0.91+-0.18Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-17859360960131821422017-06-16T19:35:13.814+10:002017-06-16T19:35:13.814+10:00I update my prediction using data up to May17.
J-D...I update my prediction using data up to May17.<br />J-D17 0.93+-0.06<br />JJA17 0.89+-0.12<br />SON17 0.95+-0.14Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-87527955344749355502017-06-03T01:23:36.511+10:002017-06-03T01:23:36.511+10:00I update my prediction using data up to Apr17.
J-D...I update my prediction using data up to Apr17.<br />J-D17 0.91+-0.06<br />MAM17 0.94+-0.04<br />JJA17 0.87+-0.12<br />SON17 0.93+-0.13Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-56359420143418578522017-04-27T01:50:16.557+10:002017-04-27T01:50:16.557+10:00Some mixed signals along the equatorial Pacific. S...Some mixed signals along the equatorial Pacific. Surface warmth in Nino1+2 region dramatically subsided in late March, with subsurface temperatures apparently increasing in the same area. Presumably some kind of upwelling event?<br /><br />In the Central Pacific there's a growing subsurface cold blob centered around 100m down. So far the surface Nino3.4 indicator is largely unaffected but typically I think the subsurface pattern would precipitate Nino3.4 cooling over the next few months.PaulSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-52516767362331386712017-04-26T22:32:42.366+10:002017-04-26T22:32:42.366+10:00I think they know physics very well. On the ENSO f...I think they know physics very well. On the ENSO front, the latest BOM forecast has backed off just a tad on El Niño in 2017.JCHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-35720007598253694152017-04-25T02:09:17.442+10:002017-04-25T02:09:17.442+10:00"@whut: I've tried but was not yet able t...<i>"@whut: I've tried but was not yet able to find any convincing periodicities in the MEI values. At which frequencies you suppose could be periods in the ENSO?"</i><br /><br />The system is nonlinear so any frequencies that you try to find by conventional power spectral analysis won't make any sense. You have to do the full DiffEq analysis in time-space to assign the periodicities. And those happen to match the primary Draconic and Anomalistic lunar periods precisely. That's essentially why no one has been able to make progress. Unless one has the right DiffEq formulation you will spin your wheels finding the forcing parameterization.<br /><br /> @whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-65100518993965577732017-04-24T02:27:50.943+10:002017-04-24T02:27:50.943+10:00JCH, Perhaps the climate is only complex when deal...JCH, Perhaps the climate is only complex when dealing with vortices, i.e. hurricanes, etc. A standing wave behavior like ENSO is not a vortex and it has a chance to be simplified. Anyone that has done any physics has learned this from their undergrad classes. And the QBO behavior may be an anti-vortex type of standing wave, which also can be simplified. <br /><br />Yet, who knows if the vortex behavior can't at least be partially simplified. I spent some time discussing with a poster presenter at last year's AGU why he was looking at analyzing jet-stream patterns at higher latitudes while the behavior at the equator (i.e. the QBO) has a much better chance of being simplified. And then that could be used for evaluating higher latitude behavior as a stimulus. Recall that these vortices peel off the equator before developing into larger patterns. He didn't have a good answer.<br /><br />Curry, Tsonis, and the WaterChef probably don't know any physics and so play the chaos card and use that ignorance to pursue their political agendas. Too bad climate science has been toxified by Curry, Tsonis, Lindzen, and all their acolytes at CE, WUWT, Talkshop and the other swamps of disinformation.<br /><br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-58877862424739102292017-04-23T23:37:03.262+10:002017-04-23T23:37:03.262+10:00Kevin - back in the old days I used to follow the ...Kevin - back in the old days I used to follow the back and forth between web and the water chef at CargoCult Etc., which, while entertaining, was a total waste of web's time. I do not agree with the statement - the climate is a complex system. I think it is likely a fairly simple system toward which mankind has been persistently indifferent... we take it for granted... mostly because it is pretty predictable in terms of human lifespans. A person in his 20s was not, by default, stupid to pick up a cheap Miami lot for their retirement years. Those were the days.<br /><br />I've been hoping for success in his ENSO endeavor. It would be huge. All I can do is have hunches and keep it simple. My hunch was positive PDO, El Niño dominance, and a big global heatwave, which is shaping up to continue through 2017 and well into 2018.JCHnoreply@blogger.com