tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post8351991910701855241..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: GISS July global up 0.01°C from June.Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-20401483437152667132019-08-24T19:57:32.813+10:002019-08-24T19:57:32.813+10:00Dear Anon,
Sorry about the late reply. It has take...Dear Anon,<br />Sorry about the late reply. It has taken me a while to get back into that work. I'll write a response tomorrow. Email is nastokes, adding westnet and com and au.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-33647520803078703802019-08-19T05:46:04.802+10:002019-08-19T05:46:04.802+10:00ARMA and other random walk models don't apply ...ARMA and other random walk models don't apply when the natural variations are deterministic, see my comment above.pphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15737287219806254245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-91031468903620026962019-08-19T04:58:30.816+10:002019-08-19T04:58:30.816+10:00Dear Nick Stokes,
I couldn't find your email...Dear Nick Stokes, <br /><br />I couldn't find your email address and therefore I'm writing here. I'm trying to understand your trend uncertainty corrections based on ARMA models. <br /><br />https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2013/09/adjusting-temperature-series-stats-for.html<br />https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2013/09/uncertainty-of-temperature-trends.html<br /><br />In these two posts you compare the trend uncertainty using AR(p) and ARMA(1,1) models with global temperature from 1980 to 2013. Strangely, the S.E. is very different. For example, GISS ARMA(1,1) is reported with 0.20°C S.E. in one post, but with 0.11°C in the other post. Do you know why that is the case? <br /> <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-12728848433634174502019-08-17T11:29:59.106+10:002019-08-17T11:29:59.106+10:00Updated my climate index model, with now 9 indices...Updated my climate index model, with now 9 indices derived from a common forcing: ENSO, QBO, PDO, AMO, IOD, NAO, AO, SAM, PNA<br /><a href="https://geoenergymath.com/2019/08/12/ao-pna-and-sam-models/" rel="nofollow">https://geoenergymath.com/2019/08/12/ao-pna-and-sam-models/</a><br />pphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15737287219806254245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-9586972878648192222019-08-17T05:59:59.813+10:002019-08-17T05:59:59.813+10:00I update my prediction for GISS temperature anomal...I update my prediction for GISS temperature anomaly using data up to Jul19.<br />GISS.v4<br />JJA19 0.95+-0.05<br />SON19 1.03+-0.14<br />J-D19 0.99+-0.05<br />DJF20 1.04+-0.21<br />MAM20 1.09+-0.19<br />The year 2019 of the GISS LOTI will be most likely the second warmest, only behind 2016.<br /><br />Assuming the 2019 temperature anomaly the prediction for 2020 is:<br />with data up to Jun19: J-D20 0.99+-0.15<br />with data up to Jul19: J-D20 1.02+-0.14 <br /><br />This would be close to a new record.<br />Note that the result may be less accurate due to still using old MEI values. Ulinoreply@blogger.com