tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post7401400380865789694..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: Warming trends in the HimalayaNick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-89401240661410789792010-08-16T18:43:49.850+10:002010-08-16T18:43:49.850+10:00Sounds like Moshpit is realizing that the whole po...Sounds like Moshpit is realizing that the whole pointing out of individual stations with counterintuitive corrections was silly, now. But he won't quite come to Jesus on it. Been a while since we've heard the "head for the ice" either. Looks like the surface record's not looking so bad. No need to head for the ice... <br /><br />Eschenback is just bad news and has been for years and years. gotta quesiton what ya got going on your side, with that fellow and his comparables. It's a hoot when he tried writing a paper and then complained about peer review and such...and the thing was a total mess of a blog post!PolyisTCOandbannednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-78924439638697650102010-08-16T02:06:30.193+10:002010-08-16T02:06:30.193+10:00Thanks Zeke!Thanks Zeke!ccehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03646816472336349526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-23838358741054763012010-08-15T10:04:56.841+10:002010-08-15T10:04:56.841+10:00Cce,
I'd be happy to run that for you next we...Cce,<br /><br />I'd be happy to run that for you next week once I finish up a post on GISTemp UHI adjustments. Should only take 15 min or so.Zekehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09757819498566612533noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-3897336063655371342010-08-15T03:22:32.413+10:002010-08-15T03:22:32.413+10:00Thanks guys. I forgot TempLS is different.
With ...Thanks guys. I forgot TempLS is different.<br /><br />With multiple methods and multiple data sources, the number of experiments that can be done is endless.ccehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03646816472336349526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-13159737627257455772010-08-14T22:09:13.321+10:002010-08-14T22:09:13.321+10:00I'm not blowing you off, cce. Just too many ir...I'm not blowing you off, cce. Just too many irons in the fire at the moment. Combining looking at the issues and opportuinities of using multiple-data sources is high on my list of things to do.Ron Broberghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00360356366869878444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-38049153834656901832010-08-14T15:08:40.274+10:002010-08-14T15:08:40.274+10:00cce,
TempLS can't easily do that, because it i...cce,<br />TempLS can't easily do that, because it isn't based on gridcells. I could probably compare sea in near-shore ribbon of say 200km, and a similar on-land. But a problem there is that SST temps aren't well localised. I place them at a grid centre, but that's arbitrary in a way that may matter for thin strip modelling.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-52602764716357187132010-08-14T11:53:48.175+10:002010-08-14T11:53:48.175+10:00This is totally off topic, but an interesting (and...This is totally off topic, but an interesting (and perhaps easy) experiment you can do with the temperature data is produce two time series for the grid boxes that have both land and SST measurements. I mentioned this on Ron's blog, but didn't seem to generate any interest. I think it would be a neat illustration of the magnitude of the problems with the ocean measurements.ccehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03646816472336349526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-35663021689017530372010-08-14T08:12:18.922+10:002010-08-14T08:12:18.922+10:00David,
There's nothing much that can be done a...David,<br />There's nothing much that can be done about that. But there's no reason to think that removing a high site would make a warming bias. That's like the southward march of thermometers fallacy. With anomalies, what counts is change - trends. And the suggestion is that higher sites warm faster.<br /><br />But the failure of my HiNepal model came because, as Zeke said, there just wasn't much high data at all over 2000 m, regardless of civil war.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-46149284670458822252010-08-14T06:47:01.831+10:002010-08-14T06:47:01.831+10:00Nick
Regarding your Nepal station count and offset...Nick<br />Regarding your Nepal station count and offset, suggest checking for altitude bias and rural/urban in the station data. Nepal's civil war may have contributed to dropping out more of the western, remote, and higher elevation sites, leaving larger lower urban areas. This might give a warming bias to the remaining data.David L.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07916002572043902482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-15597947695266834602010-08-14T05:48:20.757+10:002010-08-14T05:48:20.757+10:00Nick
The drop in station count may be related to N...Nick<br />The drop in station count may be related to Nepal's civil war.<br />These temperature records may also have some unusual “anthropogenic” influences due to Nepal’s civil war.<br /><br /> Unrest reached Kathmandu in 2004 when the Maoists announced a blockade of the capital city. Intense fighting and civic unrest continued well into 2005, with the death toll rising to 200 in December 2004. On 1 February 2005, . . . King Gyanendra assumed total control of the government. <br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nepalese_Civil_War<br /><br />These events influenced tourism and thus airport arrivals/departures. Nepal dropped from 10th to 27th most popular destination. The civil unrest may also have affected manual temperature recordings! <br />http://www.iexplore.com/about/pr_2005-01-10.jhtml<br /><br />It would help to have ground validation from skeptics familiar with each site before putting too much confidence in some of the data, especially in regions of "unrest", particularly in western regions outside of Kathmandu.David L.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07916002572043902482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-17949503327662937812010-08-13T10:38:13.709+10:002010-08-13T10:38:13.709+10:00I need to make sure that users of my GSOD data rea...I need to make sure that users of my GSOD data realize that it is "filtered" by those stations for which I could construct a unique psuedo-"cc+wmoid+rec" and by those which could pass through GISTEMP STEPS 0,1,2,3. Recall that I was interested in creating an alternate data set for use with GISTEMP.<br /><br />On my next pass through GSOD, I will be providing two files, one 'raw' and one 'psuedo-ghcn, gistemp-ready'Ron Broberghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00360356366869878444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-7411295602118911352010-08-13T08:08:24.416+10:002010-08-13T08:08:24.416+10:00Zeke,
an update. I think the Nepal and Himalaya re...Zeke,<br />an update. I think the Nepal and Himalaya results are OK (but still checking). Th effect of the bug seems to be that when there's new data, it overwrites the old data from the previous run. But if there's no data at all, the data from the previous run stays. So it only affects datasets where all stations have a simultaneous gap - ie fairly small ones like HiNepal.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-24594156319550572672010-08-13T07:41:30.289+10:002010-08-13T07:41:30.289+10:00Zeke,
I think you're right. I'm using V2, ...Zeke,<br />I think you're right. I'm using V2, as yet un-released, and it has a new multi-run capability. It looks like it doesn't properly clear data between runs. If I do HiNepal first, the run fails, as it should.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-42858377358712518892010-08-13T06:54:04.385+10:002010-08-13T06:54:04.385+10:00Nick,
If my reading of the data is correct, only ...Nick,<br /><br />If my reading of the data is correct, only Kathmandu Airport has a particularly complete record post-2000. It seems to dominate any GSOD-based reconstructions of Nepalese temps due to the rapid rise from 1995-present. Perhaps its somehow creeping into your high elevation series?Zekehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09757819498566612533noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-68980650183445662162010-08-13T05:59:36.853+10:002010-08-13T05:59:36.853+10:00Zeke, that is a puzzle. I think the fault is likel...Zeke, that is a puzzle. I think the fault is likely to be in the table I added at the bottom, because the station count says that there was at least one station reporting throughout. I'll check.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-58677218609308823852010-08-13T00:24:11.471+10:002010-08-13T00:24:11.471+10:00Nick,
If your high Nepal series is only based on ...Nick,<br /><br />If your high Nepal series is only based on stations SYANGBOCHE and JUMLA, where are you getting all those years of temps? The stations only cover 4 and 10 years respectively, and none of the other Nepalese stations are over 2000m.Zekehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09757819498566612533noreply@blogger.com