tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post7168916817402245205..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: GISS March global up 0.21°C from February.Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-6134431173898083342019-05-03T18:15:56.753+10:002019-05-03T18:15:56.753+10:00As contrast to physics based models.
It is in pri...As contrast to physics based models. <br />It is in principle multi-linear regression. So it models the temperature data with a weighted sum of previous temperature data, MEI values, linear trends, and such - plus noise. The coefficients are determined from the 1950 to 2018 data.Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-82180259015057402262019-05-02T22:19:32.067+10:002019-05-02T22:19:32.067+10:00"remaining predictions of my statistical mode...<i>"remaining predictions of my statistical model."</i><br /><br />Why statistical? @whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-63327233464080459362019-05-02T19:43:33.047+10:002019-05-02T19:43:33.047+10:00Thanks, UliThanks, UliNick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-20662151557639039562019-04-30T05:04:17.372+10:002019-04-30T05:04:17.372+10:00After some delay, there are the remaining predicti...After some delay, there are the remaining predictions of my statistical model. The main problem is the loss of the MEI time series. I tried to compensate it by using more temperature data, but this slowed down the calculation very much. <br /><br />I used the MEI values only to Nov18 in all case below. No MEI2 values are used up to now. Errors and bias may larger due to no MEI values after Nov18.<br /><br />I update my prediction for GISS(v3) temperature anomaly using data up to Dec18.<br />DJF19 0.94+-0.14<br />MAM19 0.97+-0.17<br />JJA19 0.90+-0.14<br />SON19 1.02+-0.15<br />J-D19 0.97+-0.12<br /><br />Using GISS Data until Jan19:<br />GISS.v3<br />DJF19 0.92+-0.07<br />MAM19 0.93+-0.16<br />JJA19 0.89+-0.14<br />SON19 1.00+-0.15<br />J-D19 0.94+-0.10<br />GISS.v4<br />DJF19 0.95+-0.08<br />MAM19 0.96+-0.16<br />JJA19 0.89+-0.13<br />SON19 1.02+-0.15<br />J-D19 0.97+-0.10<br /><br />Using GISS Data until Feb19:<br />GISS.v3<br />MAM19 0.93+-0.16<br />JJA19 0.88+-0.14<br />SON19 1.00+-0.15<br />J-D19 0.93+-0.10<br />GISS.v4<br />MAM19 0.95+-0.16<br />JJA19 0.89+-0.13<br />SON19 1.02+-0.15<br />J-D19 0.95+-0.10<br /><br />Using GISS Data until Mar19:<br />GISS.v3<br />MAM19 1.00+-0.08<br />JJA19 0.89+-0.13<br />SON19 1.01+-0.15<br />J-D19 0.97+-0.08<br />GISS.v4<br />MAM19 1.04+-0.07<br />JJA19 0.92+-0.12<br />SON19 1.03+-0.15<br />J-D19 1.00+-0.08Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-44042366793943618752019-04-29T20:21:39.339+10:002019-04-29T20:21:39.339+10:00Uli,
Yes, sorry there isn't a prospects post f...Uli,<br />Yes, sorry there isn't a prospects post for this year. The US government shutdown messed up the timing. Yes, I think it would be good to post here. The main thing is to have a reference point that we can pint to at year end.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-38145644110374602712019-04-28T01:37:03.981+10:002019-04-28T01:37:03.981+10:00Nick, after some delay due to time constraints, th...Nick, after some delay due to time constraints, the loss of the MEI and so, I've calculated some statistical GISS predictions for 2019. Where should I post this? Here or in the old Prospect for 2018? Ulinoreply@blogger.com