tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post3626432717957034186..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: GISS August global down 0.04°C from July.Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-1439586801372417642019-09-26T06:42:39.675+10:002019-09-26T06:42:39.675+10:00Here is more evidence that ENSO is not close to be...Here is more evidence that ENSO is not close to being chaotic or random. If a forcing signal is convolved with an annual impulse, the Fourier spectrum will be symmetric about the 0.5/year frequency. <br /><br />Easy enough to check:<br /><br /><a href="https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2671/YmyFPN.png" rel="nofollow">https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2671/YmyFPN.png</a><br /><br /><br />There are so many interesting spectral features in these climate indices that are worth looking at.<br /><br />pphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15737287219806254245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-19853951139803288042019-09-18T18:51:14.946+10:002019-09-18T18:51:14.946+10:00I update my prediction for GISS temperature anomal...I update my prediction for GISS temperature anomaly using data up to Aug19.<br />GISS.v4<br />SON19 1.02+-0.12<br />J-D19 0.99+-0.04<br />DJF20 1.07+-0.21<br />MAM20 1.08+-0.18<br />JJA20 0.94+-0.15<br />The year 2019 of the GISS LOTI will be most likely (formal prob. greater then 96%) the second warmest, only behind 2016.<br /><br />Assuming the 2019 temperature anomaly the prediction for 2020 is:<br />J-D20 1.02+-0.14<br /><br />This would be a fifty-fifty chance of a new record in 2020.<br />Note that the results may be less accurate due to still using old MEI values. <br />I've tried new MEI2 but with no good results due to no data before 1979.Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-76653447777610449962019-09-17T07:37:54.624+10:002019-09-17T07:37:54.624+10:00Clive,
I don't know why they have discontinued...Clive,<br />I don't know why they have discontinued V3, but I suppose there may be some effort required for the homogenisation. For the unadjusted data, they were really just transcribing the <a href="https://www.ogimet.com/gclimat.phtml.en" rel="nofollow">Climat data</a>, which is fortunately still being posted. But it's harder to download.<br />Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-11245977379257193212019-09-17T07:31:27.656+10:002019-09-17T07:31:27.656+10:00I find August V4/HadSST3 is just 0.01C warmer than...I find August V4/HadSST3 is just 0.01C warmer than July, which is essentially unchanged. August is 0.82C relative to 1961-1990.<br /><br />However it seems that GHCN have stopped updating V3, which I find to be premature. Do you know why ?<br /><br />CliveClive Besthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10486120708699060846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-34072863183046032572019-09-17T05:35:12.365+10:002019-09-17T05:35:12.365+10:00Annual average for 2019, eight months in, is now a...Annual average for 2019, eight months in, is now anomaly 0.966C. <br /><br />Second behind 1.02C for 2016 and ahead of 0.93C for 2018 in third place.Entropic manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08924031505275303068noreply@blogger.com