tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post3194584293012498382..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: GHCN Stations warming?Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-88464248135062238742010-02-04T07:08:30.715+11:002010-02-04T07:08:30.715+11:00http://climatewtf.blogspot.com/2010/02/stations-fr...<a href="http://climatewtf.blogspot.com/2010/02/stations-frequent-reporting-stations-of.html" rel="nofollow">http://climatewtf.blogspot.com/2010/02/stations-frequent-reporting-stations-of.html</a><br /><br />link fixedThe Blobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16066953906631389108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-69438216528981897992010-02-04T07:08:03.721+11:002010-02-04T07:08:03.721+11:00I changed the comment rules to allow anonymous com...I changed the comment rules to allow anonymous comments. I ran the query you suggested and it shows a gap in Africa as you suspected. Canada is also showing a gap too. I think a better kind of graphic is needed to visualize changes over time. A map can't really show which months and years the stations are missing data.<br /><br />http://climatewtf.blogspot.com/2010/02/stations-frequent-reporting-stations-of.htmlThe Blobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16066953906631389108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-76531207522869057052010-02-04T00:39:45.513+11:002010-02-04T00:39:45.513+11:00Well, I'll just say my comment here then, for ...Well, I'll just say my comment here then, for blob.<br /><br />I think your map is fantastic. That is value added, beyond most other efforts I've seen, including my own. I agree a map with national borders would be good.<br /><br />Bolivia is small enough that I don't care much. It's more the empty spot in (Angola/DR Congo?) that is of concern to me. Though I wouldn't expect much data to come from DRCongo, given the state of the place. <br /><br />Could you do a version of the map that gives an idea of stations that give reasonably high frequency of reports? Meaning, can you show a map for stations that have given at least 7 months in each of the last 30 years, or something like that?carrot eaternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-19196372141245080152010-02-03T15:07:07.379+11:002010-02-03T15:07:07.379+11:00TB,
Thanks, those are good maps. The post-2008 one...TB,<br />Thanks, those are good maps. The post-2008 one is especially helpful. It's clear that the big reduction was in the US, which goes from highly oversampled to just OK. But this may be a USHCN v2 issue.<br /><br />Placing the dots on a map woth country boundaries might be interesting. Thgere's clearly a lot of countries in Africa that don't report at all (as well as Bolivia).Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-36796133425394677912010-02-03T11:09:48.498+11:002010-02-03T11:09:48.498+11:00blob,
congrats on the blog. i don't have a p...blob,<br />congrats on the blog. i don't have a profile in anything fancy. is there a way i can put a comment there?carrot eaternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-25947859176541800832010-02-03T09:20:51.191+11:002010-02-03T09:20:51.191+11:00Here is what you asked for. A map of all stations ...Here is what you asked for. A map of all stations that have reported since 1997 (although I did from Jan 1998 onwards) and since 2009, as wells as some in-between years:<br /><a href="http://climatewtf.blogspot.com/2010/02/ghcn-stations-still-reporting.html" rel="nofollow">http://climatewtf.blogspot.com/2010/02/ghcn-stations-still-reporting.html</a>The Blobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16066953906631389108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-743586512177430692010-01-31T11:21:24.034+11:002010-01-31T11:21:24.034+11:00Don't worry, I think GHCN will come and go, an...Don't worry, I think GHCN will come and go, and your maps will be very useful. For example, stations currently reporting, and, say, those that have reported since 1997.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-63231761534506507592010-01-31T08:50:11.848+11:002010-01-31T08:50:11.848+11:00Im joining the GHCN party late (in fact I haven...Im joining the GHCN party late (in fact I haven't quite arrived). Hope there is still food left when I get there.<br />http://climatewtf.blogspot.com/2010/01/ghcn-world-map.htmlThe Blobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16066953906631389108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-23345903633682458872010-01-30T01:25:54.291+11:002010-01-30T01:25:54.291+11:00Ah, so you made the wrong plot incorrectly as well...Ah, so you made the wrong plot incorrectly as well. Oh well.<br /><br />In any case, I really don't care why your plot is different from p11, or why that is different from p14. <br /><br />Basically, if one guy divides 5/0 and gets 45, and another guy divides 5/0 and gets 98, it isn't interesting to me how they got those numbers; it's simply enough to know that they shouldn't have divided by zero in the first place.<br /><br />Most of what Watts/d'Aleo/Smith are presenting are just elementary misunderstandings of anomalies, baselines, trends and the history of the GHCN. It's better to focus on those directly.carrot eaternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-19253771196296293742010-01-29T15:48:07.204+11:002010-01-29T15:48:07.204+11:00Thanks, Jeff. But I hope there won't be too ma...Thanks, Jeff. But I hope there won't be too many more. And I do now see the difficulties of trying to program in blog time.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-15231307885007008392010-01-29T15:45:05.071+11:002010-01-29T15:45:05.071+11:00Nice job Nick. That's the second time recentl...Nice job Nick. That's the second time recently you've been up front with a mistake. It sucks, having made plenty of my own. I'm impressed. <br /><br />Jeff IdJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00102232063298547788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-73840042116860535562010-01-29T13:06:18.179+11:002010-01-29T13:06:18.179+11:00Carrot Eater,
A curiosity here is that there are p...Carrot Eater,<br />A curiosity here is that there are plots of apparently the same numbers on p 11 and p 14 of the report. But both the temperatures and the numbers of stations are different (and the temperatures different to mine). The first plot has about twice as many stations.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-34818398674640780032010-01-29T12:58:00.958+11:002010-01-29T12:58:00.958+11:00Carrot Eater,
Yes, according to the metadata, Ross...Carrot Eater,<br />Yes, according to the metadata, Ross M's file with that plot was created on 03/23/2002.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-747064973617506882010-01-29T12:05:56.825+11:002010-01-29T12:05:56.825+11:00jae,
One could put that as what caused the dip in ...jae,<br />One could put that as what caused the dip in the early 80's. But yes, it could be a blip associated with the changeover from the historical data to the recurrent reporting. But it isn't maintained.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-38603832470581857312010-01-29T12:03:02.129+11:002010-01-29T12:03:02.129+11:00Amac,
Thanks for your comment. Yes, I'm sure t...Amac,<br />Thanks for your comment. Yes, I'm sure the discussion will continue.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-60326074297470773392010-01-29T12:00:40.143+11:002010-01-29T12:00:40.143+11:00OK, I had a look. At this time,
http://www.ncdc...OK, I had a look. At this time, <br /><br />http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/res40.pl?page=ghcn.html<br /><br />just leads me (eventually) to the main data page of the GHCN, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ghcn-monthly/index.php<br /><br />It looks like the graph was made in 2000. As of now, I don't think there are separate files for urban/suburban/rural; you have to cross-reference v2.mean against v2.temperature.inv to find that. Maybe things were different back then.<br /><br />However it was made, it's a meaningless graph.carrot eaternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-87519834864592866642010-01-29T11:14:25.679+11:002010-01-29T11:14:25.679+11:00Neven,
Thanks for your comments. On blog names, my...Neven,<br />Thanks for your comments. On blog names, my choice was really to find something that was short and easily searched. I was surprised how many blog names on blogspot were already taken. But is it really so that people find blogs by searching likely names?<br /><br />One of my motivations is indeed to have a resource for responding in some technical detail to stories that arise on WUWT etc. I'd be very glad of any help there.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-38006136779476579462010-01-29T10:57:43.478+11:002010-01-29T10:57:43.478+11:00Do you know what causes the spike at 1990?Do you know what causes the spike at 1990?jaehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368446236963574119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-56064120353652743382010-01-29T10:22:30.716+11:002010-01-29T10:22:30.716+11:00Nick, thanks!
(1) For doing the analyses
(2) For ...Nick, thanks!<br /><br />(1) For doing the analyses<br />(2) For putting up the R<br />(3) For linking this post to the Air Vent.<br /><br />I have no idea, yet, as to whether there's merit on this issue. But I'm opimistic that I'll learn more by reading what you post and what Jeff Id posts.AMachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08872008617279528583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-82215448665020508342010-01-29T09:37:02.412+11:002010-01-29T09:37:02.412+11:00Thank you Nick. And I apologise for my laziness i...Thank you Nick. And I apologise for my laziness in not doing these things myself, as this one was especially straightforward. <br /><br />Good idea to reject years with too many -9999s.<br /><br />It is a little bit weird that they did this analysis in such a convoluted way. <br /><br />But I don't know if it's important to really track down how they did it, since it's not a meaningful graph anyway. <br /><br />The main question is why they persist in averaging together absolute temperatures, instead of anomalies?carrot eaternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-71500697877947908852010-01-29T08:28:46.229+11:002010-01-29T08:28:46.229+11:00Carrot Eater,
I had the data handy, so I did that....Carrot Eater,<br />I had the data handy, so I did that. The trend for the adjusted data is still down. The homogeneity adjustment does seem to level things a bit, and there is a more prominent uptick at about 1990, but it's temporary. The plot is <a href="http://i47.tinypic.com/33p3uqs.jpg" rel="nofollow">here</a>.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-58006559684382879382010-01-29T08:28:12.641+11:002010-01-29T08:28:12.641+11:00Carrot Eater,
I've looked at Ross' Excel f...Carrot Eater,<br />I've looked at Ross' Excel file, and tried to track down the source. For some reason, the Excel file starts from data averaged over the three categories, which is why he then creates a weighted sum in putting them back together. There's no actual station data in the file - just averages over these three categories. This makes me think that maybe those averages were what he had got from Joe - otherwise I don't see why the roundabout process of recombining to get the all-stations average. <br /><br />I tried to track the NOAA refence given, but it starts at this general level :http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/res40.pl?page=ghcn.html. When I go further, looking for data that could be found as described, the only plausible page seems to be http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/res40.pl?page=ghcn.html, which tells me:<br /><i>Global Climate at a Glance<br />is undergoing maintenance to improve its function and update its data feed. A timeline for its return will be posted on this page.<br />Last Updated Monday, 26-Oct-2009 <br /></i>Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-27337171644612281652010-01-29T07:54:00.928+11:002010-01-29T07:54:00.928+11:00Well for the fun of it, you could repeat the above...Well for the fun of it, you could repeat the above using v2.adj, and see how that looks. I'm not sure what meaning it would have, but perhaps it would have some resemblance to their plot.<br /><br />I'm puzzled that they were able to compile page after page of simple means of absolute temperatures, and not stop to wonder why nobody averages together absolute temperatures.carrot eaternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-34179750628612553972010-01-29T07:48:29.548+11:002010-01-29T07:48:29.548+11:00Carrot Eater,
Thanks, I missed that. I don't k...Carrot Eater,<br />Thanks, I missed that. I don't know for sure what the cause of the difference is. The source seems to be Ross McKitrick, as quoted, and he gives an Excel spreadsheet, which I'm looking into. He doesn't use v2.mean, but some data scraped by Joe d'Aleo from the NOAA site. It may be adjusted data. I'm not sure if it's available to others. He then weights categories (urban, suburban and rural) in an unexplained way.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-44336149196060896242010-01-29T07:39:34.505+11:002010-01-29T07:39:34.505+11:00I'm glad to find this blog. I think a blog tha...I'm glad to find this blog. I think a blog that is mainly about the Watts Surface Stations project is very useful, especially as Watts and his moderators say there is a lot more coming.<br /><br />Now, WUWT has made me all excited before about stuff finally driving that last nail in AGW's coffin home, but up till now every attempt has disappointed me greatly (I of course hope AGW really is a scam and would welcome any conclusive evidence, which the molehills camouflaged as mountains obviously are not).<br /><br />Would it be a good idea to give the blog a more prominent name, such as StationAudit or you name it? It'd be good if something is already there when the Pielke/Aleo/Watts paper comes out that can evaluate its strengths and weaknesses. People like me would immediately know where to look (instead of waiting for all the scattered blogs and websites to respond) for a review.<br /><br />OTOH, it will be a lot of work. I don't want to be one of those people who asks other people to carry out his ideas. If I'd have the brains and the expertise for it I would do it myself. :-)Nevennoreply@blogger.com