tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post2866079115191032760..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: Surface TempLS down 0.086°C in March, still second hottest Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-67421572644951635662016-04-16T03:31:25.046+10:002016-04-16T03:31:25.046+10:00Uli,
I would say for now: GISS 2016 = 1.15K +-0.0...Uli,<br /><br />I would say for now: GISS 2016 = 1.15K +-0.03K<br /><br />If you understand german, here: http://www.wzforum.de/forum2/read.php?6,3190976,3196382#msg-3196382<br /><br />Or, i have choose the years, where a el-nino was beginning and end with la-nina, so then i look for the difference between the mean of the first tree month in this year against the Year-Value. Its shows that (1992 should be ignored because of pinatabo erruption) the Year is only arround -0.11K +-0.03K cooler then the first 3 months (mean of Januar, February and March)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-88756912352096382472016-04-16T03:27:05.447+10:002016-04-16T03:27:05.447+10:00Uli- looking at Nick's tracker, April NCEP is ...Uli- looking at Nick's tracker, April NCEP is at 1.164 ℃, which is lower than December 2016 at 1.181 ℃. On GISS L&O index, that translated to 1.1 ℃. Wouldn't Nick's April numbers for NCEP have to rebound in order to hit 1.23 ℃ (i hope you're about right)?JCHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-62221728200877982732016-04-16T02:15:47.455+10:002016-04-16T02:15:47.455+10:00@JCH: my regression model gives for GISS April 201...@JCH: my regression model gives for GISS April 2016 1.23+-0.12°C. <br />But I don't know why the error bars after the last update are so small, usually for single month never below 0.2, even if it is the next.Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-50757022707937926752016-04-16T01:17:17.244+10:002016-04-16T01:17:17.244+10:00GISS March is out 1.28°C in the TableGISS March is out 1.28°C in the TableUlinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-24525881897005293892016-04-15T23:40:02.888+10:002016-04-15T23:40:02.888+10:00I think anything over .90 ℃ would be simply amazin...I think anything over .90 ℃ would be simply amazing. Especially if there are La Nina conditions in the Late NH fall. <br /><br />But I always think long term. Can April 2016 rebound a bit before the end of the month?JCHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-26368331632612887782016-04-15T19:44:55.677+10:002016-04-15T19:44:55.677+10:00I repeat my estimate for GISS March using the newe...I repeat my estimate for GISS March using the newer TempLSmesh data and get 1.25 °C or 1.29°C for two different models. This is really high and surprising.<br />If the final GISS March value is out, I will make a full prediction for the year. Probably closer to 1.1°C that to 1.0°C.Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-86312784095361779892016-04-15T18:32:16.809+10:002016-04-15T18:32:16.809+10:00Olof,
Thanks for that - yes, it's looking like...Olof,<br />Thanks for that - yes, it's looking like March is pretty close to Feb. I'll fix the maps issue.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-81646575092475879292016-04-15T18:01:40.666+10:002016-04-15T18:01:40.666+10:00JMA has reported the March temps, 0.62 C above 198...JMA has reported the March temps, 0.62 C above 1981-2010, the same (record-high) as in February.<br />Meanwhile TempLSmesh March has climbed to only 0.042 below Feb. I think it was Sudan data that caused the main leap upwards (the maps and charts in the TempLS update are stuck in April 7) Gistemp should report soon, My guess of 1.30 C remains..Olof Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18244733455655978307noreply@blogger.com