tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post1744748996865991207..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: Satellites, surface temperatures up in JanuaryNick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-47438907459678321432016-02-20T21:54:56.367+11:002016-02-20T21:54:56.367+11:00I was wrong about RAOBCORE and RICH, they are upda...I was wrong about RAOBCORE and RICH, they are updated after each full year. The latest updates, from Feb 9 2016, including 2015 can be found in this directory:<br />ftp://srvx7.img.univie.ac.at/pub/v1.5.1/<br />(the directory is often unavailable)<br />There are gridded datasets for Rich, Raobcore, and Raw. With a netcdf reader (like Panoply) and a spreadsheet, it is quite easy to make zonally weighted global temperature series. <br />RICH is now included in my troposphere trend comparison, link in my comment above.<br />RAOBCORE is essentially similar to ERA-interim ( which is used for its homogenisation). I recommend RAOBCORE for those who want to find the elusive tropical hotspot, the trend during the satellite-era at 300 mbar is about two times larger than that at 850 mbar.Olof Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18244733455655978307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-39328421276934073912016-02-11T01:38:20.088+11:002016-02-11T01:38:20.088+11:00Olof, Nice, thanks, it seems exclusive data is pro...Olof, Nice, thanks, it seems exclusive data is provided for jan 2016, not yet on ecmwf. Great arctic warming. Climatedataguide say there is maybe à warm bias for the arctic.Kerinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-77335016139106111012016-02-10T21:09:31.253+11:002016-02-10T21:09:31.253+11:00Bill,
I think Christy is moving away from TLT to T...Bill,<br />I think Christy is moving away from TLT to TMT, and I think this will be a trend. TLT is just too uncertain. I've started tracking UAH TMT in the various data page displays. Also a NOAA Nesdis version. I'll write this up soon.<br /><br />I think Christy is OK there as long as he has been consistent.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-14360411367818867732016-02-10T19:24:47.467+11:002016-02-10T19:24:47.467+11:00January 2016 is the warmest month ever, 0.72 C abo...January 2016 is the warmest month ever, 0.72 C above the global average for 1981-2010, up 0.03 C from December, according to <a href="http://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/january-2016" rel="nofollow">ERA-interim</a> Olof Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18244733455655978307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-29455430867558066342016-02-10T09:13:44.806+11:002016-02-10T09:13:44.806+11:00Thanks, OlofThanks, OlofOwenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14097787489853194986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-56594834875412571532016-02-10T08:46:30.561+11:002016-02-10T08:46:30.561+11:00Olof, many thanks.
BillOlof, many thanks.<br /><br />Billbill hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10849188148172259760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-82281193022261594842016-02-10T05:30:37.286+11:002016-02-10T05:30:37.286+11:00Thank you Olof!Thank you Olof!Tom Daytonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14033524810322903771noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-38883276719242629932016-02-10T05:30:00.354+11:002016-02-10T05:30:00.354+11:00This comment has been removed by the author.Tom Daytonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14033524810322903771noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-27860020214114359762016-02-10T05:01:51.282+11:002016-02-10T05:01:51.282+11:00Owen, Ratpac is a separate dataset, and the only o...Owen, Ratpac is a separate dataset, and the only one that is freely available and continuously updated (the 6th every month, or so)<br /><br />HadAT (UKMO) ended in Dec 2012<br />IUK v2 ended in Feb 2013<br />RICH and RAOBCORE ended in Dec 2013<br /><br />There is seemingly little interest to maintain a radiosonde dataset. Maybe the reanalysis approach has taken over..? "Fresh" data for the troposphere layers from NCEP/NCAR and ERA-interim kan be downloaded at KNMI Climate Explorer. <br /><br /><a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_dL1shkWewaYUdhcjdFOFJ3ZTA" rel="nofollow">Here</a> is a comparison of troposphere temperatures by satellites, radiosondes and reanalyses over a disputed time period, using some Christy tricks ;-)<br /><br /> Olof Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18244733455655978307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-36555836343403715702016-02-10T03:16:16.063+11:002016-02-10T03:16:16.063+11:00Does RATPAC A incorporate RAOBCORE, RICH, and UKMe...Does RATPAC A incorporate RAOBCORE, RICH, and UKMet data in its global temperature? You would think that it must.Owenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14097787489853194986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-12073468426054429942016-02-10T03:14:00.501+11:002016-02-10T03:14:00.501+11:00The RATPAC A slope is for 850-300 mbar dataThe RATPAC A slope is for 850-300 mbar dataOwenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14097787489853194986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-36144612483776548392016-02-10T03:11:48.164+11:002016-02-10T03:11:48.164+11:00Independent of the baseline used for RATPAC A, it&...Independent of the baseline used for RATPAC A, it's linear slope is 1.62 K/century for 1958-2016 (full range) and 1.72 K/century for 1979-2016 (full satellite range). NOAA is 1.55 K/century for 1979-2016) and RSS is 1.24 K/century for 1979-2016.Owenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14097787489853194986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-22664840855589948592016-02-09T23:16:45.681+11:002016-02-09T23:16:45.681+11:00Ratpac A seasonal layers 850-300 mbar is here
I d...Ratpac A seasonal layers 850-300 mbar is <a href="http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ratpac/ratpac-a/" rel="nofollow">here</a><br />I don't know the baseline, so it has to be rebaselined to 1981-2010 to be compared with satellites etc.<br /><br />If you step up in the directory you can find more..<br />E. g. <a href="http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ratpac/v2beta/ratpac-a/" rel="nofollow">Ratpac v2 beta</a> which seems to be an improvement. Same methods but based on the more comprehensive database IGRA v2 beta, resulting in fewer data gaps and loss of stations..Olof Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18244733455655978307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-87701147745149697472016-02-09T22:51:20.388+11:002016-02-09T22:51:20.388+11:00Sorry, that should be url,not "ultimate"...Sorry, that should be url,not "ultimate". (wretched tablets!)bill hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10849188148172259760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-71335175577615359002016-02-09T21:56:50.300+11:002016-02-09T21:56:50.300+11:00Olof, fine: do you have the ultimate for seasonal ...Olof, fine: do you have the ultimate for seasonal resolution?bill hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10849188148172259760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-62822271558658640262016-02-09T21:52:38.857+11:002016-02-09T21:52:38.857+11:00Another rather serious flaw is that on this much c...Another rather serious flaw is that on this much cited graph of Christy is the abbreviation TMT, short for "temperature of the middle troposphere. However, the UAH series is for the Lower troposphere. What a mess. This graphic is starting to rival the notorious "schematic" from the first IPCC assessment.<br />bill hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10849188148172259760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-32004419336999153552016-02-09T20:11:32.218+11:002016-02-09T20:11:32.218+11:00I believe that TempLSmesh will rise to level of De...I believe that TempLSmesh will rise to level of December with US data. CONUS is probably neutral, but Alaska and some missing high Arctic stations in Canada will likely fill out the "blue hole" in the Arctic ocean with at least + 4 C anomalies.<br />Likewise, Sudan data may affect the cold spot in Central Africa. There is also data missing for a majority of the Andean countries..Olof Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18244733455655978307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-91165200546679006542016-02-09T18:38:20.965+11:002016-02-09T18:38:20.965+11:00Bill H, they don't have monthly resolution for...Bill H, they don't have monthly resolution for the globally and zonally weighted indices, the finest is season and they start to report a season when two months of three are in..<br />The satellite series agreed with radiosondes back in the MSU-only days, but with the introduction of AMSU in 1998 they started to drift away. <br />UAH 5.6 behaves quite well, I don't know if the reason is that they don't use diurnal drift correction with AMSU:s and rely more on the non-drifting satellites..Olof Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18244733455655978307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-71069337132934564922016-02-09T12:19:38.265+11:002016-02-09T12:19:38.265+11:00I’ve never seen an adequate explanation from Chris...I’ve never seen an adequate explanation from Christy or Spencer, of exactly which balloon indices are shown in that graph they keep showing: https://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/HHRG-114-SY-WState-JChristy-20160202.pdf<br /><br />The graph says “NOAA,” but NOAA’s web site presents NOAA’s RATPAC-A as NOAA’s radiosonde index that is appropriate for looking at global trends: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/weather-balloon/radiosonde-atmospheric-temperature-products-accessing-climate<br /><br />And RATPAC-A well matches surface trends and not RSS or UAH: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/15/drift/<br /><br />The graph says it uses the “UKMet” balloon data from about 1978, but the UKMet’s web site says its global index contains data only from 1997 forward: http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/f2afaf808b61394b78bd342ff068c8cd<br /><br />So Christy’s graph must be using only the European UKMet index: http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/radiosonde/<br /><br />RAOBCORE goes up to only 2011, I don’t know if it’s global, and its authors warn that its homogenization can be biased by satellites. Obviously it’s inappropriate to validate the satellite indices with a balloon index that can be biased by those very same satellite data: http://www.univie.ac.at/theoret-met/research/raobcore/<br /><br />RICH uses only other radiosondes for homogenization, but I believe has the same limited time span and possibly limited geographic span as RAOBCORE: http://www.univie.ac.at/theoret-met/research/raobcore/<br />Tom Daytonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14033524810322903771noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-21689139723382812712016-02-09T08:47:54.909+11:002016-02-09T08:47:54.909+11:00Actually, can you give me the url for monthly Rat...Actually, can you give me the url for monthly Ratpac data. I can only find annual data on the NOAA websitebill hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10849188148172259760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-1359212130463965802016-02-09T08:21:57.159+11:002016-02-09T08:21:57.159+11:00Very interesting. A failure to register the magnit...Very interesting. A failure to register the magnitude of an el Nino doesn't look good for the satellite data. Interesting to see how UAH 5 copes. On the subject of satellites vs balloons I happened to notice on some d***er blog that John Christy has been claiming that UAH6 agrees very well with balloon based measurements. Does anyone know anything more about this?bill hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10849188148172259760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-39862967073301748452016-02-09T00:09:48.620+11:002016-02-09T00:09:48.620+11:00Understood Paul S, but .87℃ is a high bar. ~.92℃ w...Understood Paul S, but .87℃ is a high bar. ~.92℃ would be good for 2016. I think a big thing is going to be whether or not the PDO remains positive; have we seen the peak, or is another PDO surge coming? It's decaying now, but warm water is stuck along the coasts. Maybe it will persevere. JCHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-54240040090140280102016-02-08T22:07:10.684+11:002016-02-08T22:07:10.684+11:00Keri,
Something I noticed a while ago, looking at...Keri,<br /><br />Something I noticed a while ago, looking at past El Ninos in NCEP data, was that land average anomalies tended to be warmer and far less variable than seen in GISS around the peak months of December through May.<br /><br />JCH,<br /><br />A 1.0C anomaly would still be 0.2C warmer than the 2015 January-September average in GISS. A big drop from this point is needed to avoid a new record. <a href="https://i2.wp.com/bonjourplanetearth.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/giss-ninos2016pred.jpg" rel="nofollow">This</a> is my rough prediction for how things will proceed, with previous El Nino events marked for reference. That picture works out to a new record by about 0.05C.PaulShttps://bonjourplanetearth.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-80969543340949384662016-02-08T17:27:14.731+11:002016-02-08T17:27:14.731+11:00... But that's not correct, you're not usi...... But that's not correct, you're not using forecast as data. That would only apply to GFS... No, I don't understand what's going on with that NCEP data. We'll see GISS.Kerinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-80787136614276264362016-02-08T16:49:02.143+11:002016-02-08T16:49:02.143+11:00Karsten,
What you say makes sense but I'm sti...Karsten, <br />What you say makes sense but I'm still troubled by the difference for ncep/ncar. If you check surface, not sig 995on ersl, you'll see january as warmest on record. Maybe the difference is you are using forecast as data while Nick is using reanalyzed data. His updates come three days after while yours are on daily basis and even forecasted. Kerinoreply@blogger.com