tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post1059132566843654159..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: October NCEP/NCAR global surface anomaly up 0.1°'C from SeptemberNick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-89036427812751819592018-11-07T04:27:43.987+11:002018-11-07T04:27:43.987+11:00Interesting. Warming causes expansion, so the heig...Interesting. Warming causes expansion, so the height of the 700mb should have increased in direct proportion to the increase in temperature, would be worth a check. I find that the the height of the 300mb layer is a good rough proxy for satellite TLT.<br /><br />Chubbs Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-70773703620810192432018-11-07T02:23:15.376+11:002018-11-07T02:23:15.376+11:00Copernicus ERA-interim for October is in, up 0.145...Copernicus ERA-interim for October is in, up 0.145 C from September.<br />I have looked at the temperature change from Sept to Oct in different atmospheric layers in NCEP/NCAR over at ESRL/WRIT. The troposphere at 700 mbar and above has actually cooled a little bit.<br /><br />Difference degrees C Oct - Sept (1981-2010 base)<br />700 mbar -0.035<br />850 mbar +0.049<br />925 mbar +0.100<br />2 m +0.151<br />SST/skin +0.206<br /><br />So there is more warming closer to the surface. If we make proper blend, 71% sea-masked SST/skin (+0.117) and 29% land-masked 2 m air (+0.390), the blend will be +0.196. This is maybe the best comparison/indicator for the blended observational datasets.<br /><br />Nick, you daily NCEP/NCAR data source is "sig 995" (i I remember right), which refers to the level with 99.5% of the surface pressure. I think that equals the temperature at about 50 m above the surface. The change from Sept that you report, +0.102, is between that of 2 m and 925 mbar, which makes sense. Maybe different baselines have some effect also also, or that 925 mbar data for land above that level is missing from the retrieved global average?<br />Olof Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18244733455655978307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-73989155485618076052018-11-07T00:58:08.046+11:002018-11-07T00:58:08.046+11:00Impressive warmth subsurface in the Pacific. Usual...Impressive warmth subsurface in the Pacific. Usually a leading indicator of enso and global temperatures.<br /><br />ChubbsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-35667335018403266522018-11-06T08:13:45.871+11:002018-11-06T08:13:45.871+11:00Today there is more data (still a lot missing) and...Today there is more data (still a lot missing) and the temperature is even higher. The rise in TempLS grid is lower than mesh, so I checked with the spherical harmonics quadrature, which I don't normally run this early. It gives a similar rise to TempLS mesh (0.205). Using grid with proper infilling gave a smaller rise, at 0.144°C.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-71774244743733354832018-11-06T03:58:32.800+11:002018-11-06T03:58:32.800+11:00Nothing in ENSO from the 30-day MA of SOI indicate...Nothing in ENSO from the 30-day MA of SOI indicates an El Nino.<br />ENSO/SOI, PDO, AMO, MJO, NAO, AO, QBO are likely all common-mode mechanisms but phased differently.@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-62793457162279550442018-11-06T02:31:53.819+11:002018-11-06T02:31:53.819+11:00Looks like "The Blob" is back. Cue endle...Looks like "The Blob" is back. Cue endless discussion about that.<br /><br />It does look like Nino3.4 SSTs will reach levels consistent with being reported as an El Nino, but one major issue is that I can't see any real sign as yet of the East-West gradient which defines it, and it's getting very late in the year. In terms of average equatorial West Pacific ocean temperatures down to 300m <a href="https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/wwv/gif/wwv_t300_anom_w.gif" rel="nofollow">we're currently at record highs</a> when we would expect negative anomalies if an El Nino is developing.<br /><br />It seems like temperatures are just generally warm in the tropical Pacific right now.PaulSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-6214358633968320802018-11-05T21:05:00.236+11:002018-11-05T21:05:00.236+11:00Yes. It seems to be a big rise in SST, for which a...Yes. It seems to be a big rise in SST, for which all the numbers are in. TempLS also sees about 0.075. I hope the land situation will be clearer in about four hours.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-66328341986995849202018-11-05T20:02:25.208+11:002018-11-05T20:02:25.208+11:00TempLSmesh for October is up and running now. It i...TempLSmesh for October is up and running now. It is up 0.175 C from Sept, but it should be taken with a pinch of salt since less than half of the land area have reported.<br />However, the change doesn't seem unreasonable. NCEP/NCAR land only is up 0.39 C from Sept and ERSST5 is up 0.07 C.<br />So Gistemp loti for October may leap above 0.90 C. If GHCN v4 become introduced in the dataset everything will change. GHCN v4 is operational now and no longer beta.<br />My qualified guess/prediction is that GHCN 4 will increase recent Arctic trends, increase global trends slightly, and make a lot of skeptics upset..Olof Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18244733455655978307noreply@blogger.com