tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-77290933806751620512024-03-16T02:27:40.794+11:00moyhuNick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger951125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-85460673194108877832024-03-13T20:57:00.001+11:002024-03-13T20:59:20.877+11:00GISS February global temperature up by 0.22°C from January.
The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly <a href="https://twitter.com/NASAGISS/status/1767203831148912779"> was 1.44°C</a> in February, up from 1.35°C in January. This rise is larger than the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2024/03/february-global-surface-templs-up-0163.html">0.165°C rise</a> reported for TempLS. <br /><br />
As with TempLS, February was the warmest February in the record - next was 1.37°C in 2016.
<br /><br /> As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.
<br /><!--#@_M3--><a name='more'></a><br />
Here is GISS V4<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2024/02/gissfeb.png" />
<br /><br />
And here is the TempLS V4 FEM-based plot
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2024/02/Febmap0.png" width="800" />
<br /><!--more-->
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run for twelve years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/">here</a>, and I post the monthly averages <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>. <br />
The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph now comes from a high resolution regular grid on the sphere; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M3-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-43572248127924067242024-03-07T08:37:00.000+11:002024-03-07T08:37:52.783+11:00February global surface TempLS up 0.163°C from January; warmest February in record.
The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">TempLS FEM</a> anomaly (1961-90 base) was 1.256°C in February, up from 1.093°C in January. It was the warmest February in the record, ahead of 1.16°C in 2016. The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR">NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index</a> rose by 0.061°C.
<br /> <br />
It was very warm in N America, most of Europe, and the Arctic. Cold patches in Central Asia and far NE Siberia. Antarctica was cold.
<br />
Here is the temperature map, using the <a hrcef="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2022/06/moving-to-fem-variant-of-templs-global.html">FEM-based map</a> of anomalies. Use the arrows at bottom to see different 2D projections.
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<div id="PxFebruary"></div>
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<br />
<br /><br />As always, the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_24.html">3D globe map</a> gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">ongoing report</a> which is updated daily.<div><br /></div><div><br />
<br />
Here is the updated stacked plot of monthly values
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/pages/latest/Mth/stackedmth25.png" />
<br />
<br />
<script type="text/javascript">var i="#@_M2"</script>
<!--#@_M2-->
<a name='more'></a>
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run since 2011. The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses the FEM solution on a regular near equal area grid on the sphere ; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M2-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
<br />
</div>Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-80087886543943150832024-02-13T15:53:00.001+11:002024-02-13T15:53:57.800+11:00GISS January global temperature down by 0.14°C from December.
The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly <a href="https://twitter.com/NASAGISS/status/1755622516150919592"> was 1.21°C</a> in January, up from 1.35°C in December. This fall is similar to the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/11/october-global-surface-templs-down.html">0.165°C</a> fall reported for TempLS. <br /><br />
As with TempLS, January was still by a small margin the warmest January in the record - next was 1.18°C in 2016.
<br /><br /> As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.
<br /><!--#@_M3--><a name='more'></a><br />
Here is GISS V4<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2024/01/gissjan.png" />
<br /><br />
And here is the TempLS V4 FEM-based plot
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2024/01/Janmap0.png" width="800" />
<br /><!--more-->
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run for twelve years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/">here</a>, and I post the monthly averages <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>. <br />
The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph now comes from a high resolution regular grid on the sphere; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M3-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-73862891545142933102024-02-07T09:56:00.000+11:002024-02-07T09:56:24.174+11:00January global surface TempLS down 0.165°C from December, but still warmest January in record.
The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">TempLS FEM</a> anomaly (1961-90 base) was 1.062°C in January, down from 1.227°C in December. It was still he warmest January in the record, but only just ahead of 0.982°C in 2016. This is the first time since May that the month was not warmest by a long way. The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR">NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index</a> fell by 0.141°C.
<br /> <br />
It was very warm in NE N America, but cold in a band from the Gulf Coast to Alaska. Cold in N Europe and far East Siberia, but a band of warmth through N Africa to central Siberia. Antarctica was cold.
<br />
Here is the temperature map, using the <a hrcef="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2022/06/moving-to-fem-variant-of-templs-global.html">FEM-based map</a> of anomalies. Use the arrows at bottom to see different 2D projections.
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<div id="PxJanuary"></div>
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<br />
<br /><br />As always, the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_24.html">3D globe map</a> gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">ongoing report</a> which is updated daily.<br />
<br />
<script type="text/javascript">var i="#@_M2"</script>
<!--#@_M2-->
<a name='more'></a>
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run since 2011. The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses the FEM solution on a regular near equal area grid on the sphere ; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M2-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
<br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-17901651543719788042024-01-14T08:26:00.001+11:002024-01-14T08:26:32.893+11:00GISS December global temperature down by 0.06°C from November.
The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt"> was 1.37°C</a> in December, down from 1.43°C in November. This fall is very similar to the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2024/01/december-global-surface-templs-down.html">0.064°C fall</a> reported for TempLS. <br /><br />
As with TempLS, December was still by a large margin the warmest December in the record - next was 1.16°C in 2015.
<br /><br /> As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.
<br /><!--#@_M3--><a name='more'></a><br />
Here is GISS V4<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/12/gissdec.png" />
<br /><br />
And here is the TempLS V4 FEM-based plot
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/12/Decmap0.png" width="800" />
<br /><!--more-->
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run for twelve years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/">here</a>, and I post the monthly averages <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>. <br />
The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph now comes from a high resolution regular grid on the sphere; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M3-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-45972492435629445312024-01-09T07:57:00.002+11:002024-01-09T08:02:11.917+11:00Graphics to show magnitude of 2023 warming.My <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2024/01/december-global-surface-templs-down.html">previous post</a>, with the December anomaly average, completed the years results and confirmed what has been obvious for a while, that 2023 is the hottest year that has been measured. It was 0.158°C warmer than 2016, the next warmest year, which itself stood above previous years.
<br /><br />
I'd like here to collect some graphics which will put this into proportion. It comes from a collection (for various indices) that I am updating and posting on <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Records">the data page</a>. The first is oneof a kind that I show whenever there is a record year. It is just a bar chart of the temperatures, but colored in a way that shows the progress of the record values:
<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/pages/latest/Mth/rec18_6.png" />
<br />
The second is one that I have been showing for a while. It is a stacked graph of monthly and annual temperatures. It is like a bar chart, but the months have been gathered in one slot, and arranged in order of size, tallest at the back. Annual is shown as well. Since June, 2023 towers over the rest:
<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/pages/latest/Mth/stackedmth15.png" />
<br />
And here is a graph with a different ordering, by time, newest at the back. Each rectangle you now see was a record in its time, so gives an idea of how record setting 2023 was. 2016 was not so far behind, but based on just four very warm months. However, there is a calendar effect here. The 2015/6 peak was split between two years; taken together, they were actually larger than 2023, as you see from the annual column. Still, the current one isn't finished by any means.<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/pages/latest/Mth/stackedmth25.png" />
<br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-56966286834271320922024-01-08T08:41:00.000+11:002024-01-08T08:41:54.373+11:00December global surface TempLS down 0.064°C from November, but still warmest December in record.
The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">TempLS FEM</a> anomaly (1961-90 base) was 1.214°C in December, down from 1.278°C in November. It was still by far the warmest December in the record by 0.229°C, ahead of 0985°C in 2015. The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR">NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index</a> rose by 0.031°C.
<br /> <br />
It confirms 2023 as the hottest year in the record; I'll write more about that with graphics in a coming post. I have added a gallery of graphics to the data page <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Records">here</a>. For now, I'll just show the stacked graph of monthly temperatures, to show how the last seven months stand out:
<br /> <br />
Here is the corresponding stacked graph, showing how much hotter recent months have been, as well as the now completed year of 2023:
<br /> <br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/pages/latest/Mth/stackedmth15.png" />
<br /> <br />
North America was very warm. Scandinavia was cold, as was a section of East Siberia. Antarctica was cold.
<br />
Here is the temperature map, using the <a hrcef="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2022/06/moving-to-fem-variant-of-templs-global.html">FEM-based map</a> of anomalies. Use the arrows to see different 2D projections.
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<div id="PxDecember"></div>
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if(!is(suff))suff=".png";
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r.stem=stem; r.suff=suff;
r.i=0;r.n=n;
C(0,r);
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q=cr(p,"button")/*make buttons*/;
iH(q,i<0?"<":">");
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k=MoyhuJSlibf()
eval(k)
u=getel("PxDecember")
p=cr(u,"div")
s="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/12/Decmap"
r=makeimge(p,3,s)
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}
pXinit()
</script>
<br />
<br /><br />As always, the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_24.html">3D globe map</a> gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">ongoing report</a> which is updated daily.<br />
<br />
<script type="text/javascript">var i="#@_M2"</script>
<!--#@_M2-->
<a name='more'></a>
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run since 2011. The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses the FEM solution on a regular near equal area grid on the sphere ; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M2-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
<br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-31788322741910808912023-12-15T09:51:00.000+11:002023-12-15T09:51:22.535+11:00GISS November global temperature up by 0.1°C from October.
The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly <a href="https://twitter.com/NASAGISS/status/1735328799099932774"> was 1.44°C</a> in November 2023, up from 1.34°C in October. This rise is similar to the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/11/october-global-surface-templs-down.html">0.061°C rise</a> reported for TempLS. <br /><br />
As with TempLS, November was by a large margin the warmest November in the record - next was 1.1°C in 2020. It was the second warmest month of all kinds; just 0.03°C less than last September.
<br /><br /> As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.
<br /><!--#@_M3--><a name='more'></a><br />
Here is GISS V4<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/11/gissnov.png" />
<br /><br />
And here is the TempLS V4 FEM-based plot
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/11/Novmap0.png" width="800" />
<br /><!--more-->
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run for twelve years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/">here</a>, and I post the monthly averages <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>. <br />
The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph now comes from a high resolution regular grid on the sphere; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M3-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-28030552532178479982023-12-05T07:48:00.001+11:002023-12-11T11:08:58.869+11:00November global surface TempLS up 0.061°C from October.
The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">TempLS FEM</a> anomaly (1961-90 base) was 1.267°C in November, up from 1.206°C in October. It was by far the warmest November in the record by 0.337°C, ahead of 0.93°C in 2015, and it was very nearly the warmest month of any kind, after last September at 1.285°C. The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR">NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index</a> rose by 0.09°C.
<br /> <br />
The average for 2023 to date is 0.995°C, well ahead of 2016 at 0,855°C. I'll show again the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/07/maintained-table-of-global-temperatures.html">table</a> of months in descending order of warmth:<br /><br />
<iframe height="300" src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/pages/latest/T/hot.html" style="background-color: white; position: absolute;" width="930">
</iframe><br />
<img height="300" width="0" />
<br />
<br /> <br />
Here is the corresponding stacked graph, showing how much hotter recent months have been
<br /> <br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/pages/latest/Mth/monthrec1.png" /> <div> Most of the world was warm, with the main cool spots being Scandinavia and East Antarctica.
<br /> <br />
Here is the temperature map, using now the <a hrcef="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2022/06/moving-to-fem-variant-of-templs-global.html">FEM-based map</a> of anomalies.
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<div id="PxNovember"></div>
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</script>
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<br />
<br /><br />As always, the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_24.html">3D globe map</a> gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">ongoing report</a> which is updated daily.<br />
<br />
<script type="text/javascript">var i="#@_M2"</script>
<!--#@_M2-->
<a name='more'></a>
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run since 2011. The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses the FEM solution on a regular near equal area grid on the sphere ; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M2-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
<br />
</div>Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-52117588700022712012023-11-16T10:58:00.000+11:002023-11-16T10:58:24.358+11:00GISS October global temperature down by 0.13°C from September.
The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly <a href="https://twitter.com/NASAGISS/status/https://twitter.com/NASAGISS/status/1724819556219134450"> was 1.34°C</a> in October 2023, down from 1.47°C in September. This fall is similar to the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/11/october-global-surface-templs-down.html">0.1°C fall</a> reported for TempLS. <br /><br />
As with TempLS, October was by a large margin the warmest October in the record - next was 1.02°C in 2016. It was nearly the second warmest month of all kinds; just pipped by Feb/Mar of 2016.
<br /><br /> As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.
<br /><!--#@_M3--><a name='more'></a><br />
Here is GISS V4<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/11/gissoct.png" />
<br /><br />
And here is the TempLS V4 FEM-based plot
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/10/Octmap0.png" width="800" />
<br /><!--more-->
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run for twelve years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/">here</a>, and I post the monthly averages <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>. <br />
The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph now comes from a high resolution regular grid on the sphere; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M3-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-91505578207701125992023-11-07T10:49:00.001+11:002023-12-05T08:21:37.419+11:00October global surface TempLS down 0.102°C from September.,still second warmest month.
The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">TempLS FEM</a> anomaly (1961-90 base) was 1.182°C in October, down from 1.284°C in September. It was still the warmest October in the record by 0.26°C well ahead of 0924°C in 2015, and it wass till, after September, the warmest month of any kind. The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR">NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index</a> fell by 0.069°C.
<br /> <br />
The average for 2023 to date is 0.966°C, well ahead of 2016 at 0,855°C. I'll show again the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/07/maintained-table-of-global-temperatures.html">table</a> of months in descending order of warmth:<br /><br />
<iframe height="300" src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/pages/latest/T/hot.html" style="background-color: white; position: absolute;" width="930">
</iframe><br />
<img height="300" width="0" />
<br />
<br /> <br />
Here is the corresponding stacked graph, showing how much hotter recent months have been
<br /> <br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/10/monthrec2.png" />
Most of the world was warm, with the only cool spots being Scandinavia and areas of Antarctica. Very warm in central Siberia.
<br /> <br />
Here is the temperature map, using now the <a hrcef="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2022/06/moving-to-fem-variant-of-templs-global.html">FEM-based map</a> of anomalies.
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<div id="PxOctober"></div>
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<br />
<br /><br />As always, the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_24.html">3D globe map</a> gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">ongoing report</a> which is updated daily.<br />
<br />
<script type="text/javascript">var i="#@_M2"</script>
<!--#@_M2-->
<a name='more'></a>
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run since 2011. The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses the FEM solution on a regular near equal area grid on the sphere ; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M2-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
<br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-5045659138500628362023-10-08T07:35:00.002+11:002023-10-08T07:37:07.143+11:00September global surface TempLS up 0.191°C from August. Record warm month.
The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">TempLS FEM</a> anomaly (1961-90 base) was 1.292°C in September, up from 1.101°C in August. It was by far (by 0.45°C! ) the warmest September in the record well ahead of 0.842°C in 2020. It was the warmest month of any kind by a margin of 0.14°C (Feb 2016). The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR">NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index</a> rose by 0.25°C.
<br /> <br />
That makes four very warm months in a row, and the recent warmth makes it almost certain that 2023 will be the warmest year in the record. The average to date is 0.946°C, well ahead of 0.857°C in 2016. But unlike 2016, 2023 is getting warmer, while 2016 peaked in Feb-Mar. I'll show the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/08/graphs-showing-leadup-to-record-hot-year.html">stacked plot</a> of months in descending order of warmth:<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/09/monthrec3.png" />
<br />
The table from which it is derived is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#hottest">here</a>.
<br /><br />
Most of the world was warm, with the only cool spot being an area around Patagonia. Europe was quite warm.
<br /> <br />
Here is the temperature map, using now the <a hrcef="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2022/06/moving-to-fem-variant-of-templs-global.html">FEM-based map</a> of anomalies. Use the arrows for different projections.<br /><br />
<div id="PxSeptember"></div>
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k=MoyhuJSlibf()
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p=cr(u,"div")
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<br />
<br /><br />As always, the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_24.html">3D globe map</a> gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">ongoing report</a> which is updated daily.<br />
<br />
<script type="text/javascript">var i="#@_M2"</script>
<!--#@_M2-->
<a name='more'></a>
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run since 2011. The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses the FEM solution on a regular near equal area grid on the sphere ; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M2-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
<br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-37880993267782573062023-09-15T07:53:00.000+10:002023-09-15T07:53:06.988+10:00GISS August global temperature up by 0.05°C from July.
The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly <a href="https://twitter.com/NASAGISS/status/1702336402443427951"> was 1.24°C</a> in August 2023, up from 1.19°C in July. This rise is nearly the same as the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/09/august-global-surface-templs-up-0.html">0.056°C rise</a> reported for TempLS. <br /><br />
As with TempLS, August was by a large margin the warmest August in the record - next was 1.02°C in 2016. As GISS emphasises in another tweet, the three months in a row make it by far the warmest summer in the record.
<br /><br /> As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.
<br /><!--#@_M3--><a name='more'></a><br />
Here is GISS V4<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/08/gissaug.png" />
<br /><br />
And here is the TempLS V4 FEM-based plot
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/08/Augmap0.png" width="800" />
<br /><!--more-->
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run for twelve years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/">here</a>, and I post the monthly averages <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>. <br />
The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph now comes from a high resolution regular grid on the sphere; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M3-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-66584536994244413892023-09-07T07:23:00.003+10:002023-09-14T09:37:55.174+10:00August global surface TempLS up 0.056°C from July.
The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">TempLS FEM</a> anomaly (1961-90 base) was 1.117°C in August, up from 1.061°C in July. It was the warmest August in the record, 0.24°C well ahead of 0.875°C in 2016. The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR">NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index</a> fell by 0.083°C.
<br /> <br />
That makes three vrey warm months in a row, and the recent warmth makes it very likely that 2023 will be the warmest year in the record. The average to date is 0.904°C, well ahead of 0.857°C in 2016. But unlike 2016, 2023 is getting warmer, while 2016 peaked in Feb-Mar. I'll show again the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/07/maintained-table-of-global-temperatures.html">table</a> of months in descending order of warmth:<br /><br />
<iframe height="300" src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/pages/latest/T/hot.html" style="background-color: white; position: absolute;" width="930">
</iframe><br />
<img height="300" width="0" />
<br />
Most of the world was warm, with the only cool spots neing areas of Antarctica. The pattern was so similar to July that I had to check that I wasn't just recycling!
<br /> <br />
Here is the temperature map, using now the <a hrcef="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2022/06/moving-to-fem-variant-of-templs-global.html">FEM-based map</a> of anomalies.
<br /><br /><br />
<div id="PxAugust"></div>
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<br />
<br /><br />As always, the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_24.html">3D globe map</a> gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">ongoing report</a> which is updated daily.<br />
<br />
<script type="text/javascript">var i="#@_M2"</script>
<!--#@_M2-->
<a name='more'></a>
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run since 2011. The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses the FEM solution on a regular near equal area grid on the sphere ; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M2-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
<br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-32885121540682341042023-08-15T07:27:00.001+10:002023-08-15T07:27:25.753+10:00GISS July global temperature up by 0.10°C from June.
The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly <a href="https://twitter.com/NASAGISS/status/1691102516866383872"> was 1.18°C</a> in July 2023, up from 1.08°C in June. This rise is nearly the same as the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/08/july-global-surface-templs-up-0093-from.html">0.093°C rise</a> reported for TempLS. <br /><br />
As with TempLS, July was by a large margin the warmest July in the record - next was 0.94°C in 2019. Here, in the style of my mentioned in my <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/08/graphs-showing-leadup-to-record-hot-year.html">last post</a>, is the graphical representation of monthly temperatures, stacked in order. The top black rectangles are the recent June and July
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/08/monthrecG1.png" /><br /><br />
<br /><br />
<br /><br /> As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.
<br /><!--#@_M3--><a name='more'></a><br />
Here is GISS V4<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/07/gissjul.png" />
<br /><br />
And here is the TempLS V4 FEM-based plot
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/07/Julmap0.png" width="800" />
<br /><!--more-->
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run for twelve years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/">here</a>, and I post the monthly averages <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>. <br />
The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph now comes from a high resolution regular grid on the sphere; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M3-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-80586075659930804512023-08-08T20:14:00.003+10:002023-08-08T20:50:23.158+10:00Graphs showing the leadup to a record hot year<!--C:\mine\blog\data\mirror\record\monthgraf.r-->
I posted <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/08/july-global-surface-templs-up-0093-from.html">two days ago</a> the TempLS results for July, showing that is was 0.225°C hotter than any prvious July (2019), following on from a record hot June. These measures tipped the results to date above the previous hottest years of 2016 and 2020. But whereas those years peaked in February/March, it seems that 2023 is just getting started. So I have made some graphs to show where things stand.<br /><br />
The first is one of a kind that I tracked the progress of 2015 and 2016. It shows the year to date averages of recent hot years over the twelve months. It isn't ideal for 2023, because the early warmth of 2016, say, is exaggerated. I have marked with a fine grey line the previous record, which 2023 to date has just passed. But more significant are the black dots of the actual 2023 monthly temperatures. It means that if anything like the July level can be maintained, 2023 will be, so to speak, a boilover.
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/08/progress.png" /><br /><br />
<br /><br />
Next is a graphical version of the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/07/maintained-table-of-global-temperatures.html">table of ordered months</a> that I wrote about last month and added to the data page. It shows a rectangle for each of the warmer months, the top of which is the temperature for thet month,and the bottom is that of the next lower month. The annual average is to the right (year to date for 2023). The key for year colors is at the top.
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/08/monthrec1.png" />
<br /><br />
It emphasises by how much June and July 2023 exceeded previous months. This could be seen as overstated, since other record-setting years have been overwritten by more recent hot months. So here now is a plot of the months as they would have shown when they set the record, ie the years descending are monotonic. That shows how the years of 2015 and 2016 were more remarkable at the time. But again, I think 2023 is just getting started.
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/08/monthrec2.png" />
<br /><br />
Finally I'll show an updated plot of the time history of hot year records. It is just a regular annual plot, but with colors to show the years for which each record lasted, showing also the rapid recent rise.
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/08/rec23_6.png" />
<br /><br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-51206155485030950022023-08-07T05:02:00.001+10:002023-08-07T05:08:44.284+10:00July global surface TempLS up 0.093°C from June. The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">TempLS FEM</a> anomaly (1961-90 base) was 1.041°C in July, up from 0.948°C in June. It was the warmest July in the record, well ahead of 0.815°C in 2019. The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR">NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index</a> rose by 0.192°C.
<br> <br>
June was already very warm, and the recent warmth makes it very likely that 2023 will be the warmest year in the record. The average to date is 0.87°C, already ahead of 0.857°C in 2016. But unlike 2016, 2023 is getting warmer, while 2016 peaked in Feb-Mar. I'll show again the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/07/maintained-table-of-global-temperatures.html">table</a> of months in descending order of warmth:<br /><br>
<iframe height="300" src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/pages/latest/T/hot.html" style="background-color: white;position:absolute" width="930">
</iframe><br />
<img height="300" width=0>
</img><br />
Most of the world was warm, with the only cool spots being the northern prairies of N America, and areas of Antarctica.
<br> <br>
Here is the temperature map, using now the <a hrcef="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2022/06/moving-to-fem-variant-of-templs-global.html">FEM-based map</a> of anomalies.
<br><br><br><br>
<div id="PxJuly" /></div>
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<br>
<br><br>As always, the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_24.html">3D globe map</a> gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">ongoing report</a> which is updated daily.<br>
<br>
<script type="text/javascript">var i="#@_M2"</script>
<!--#@_M2-->
<a name='more'></a>
</br><p style="color:#aa0000">This post is part of a series that has now run since 2011. The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br><br>
</br>The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses the FEM solution on a regular near equal area grid on the sphere ; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br><br><!--#@_M2-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:<ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</ol></br></p>
</br><br><br>
</br><br>
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-84981073027047218782023-07-14T19:43:00.003+10:002023-07-14T19:49:19.009+10:00GISS June global temperature up by 0.14°C from May.
The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly <a href="https://twitter.com/NASAGISS/status/1679512765772251136"> was 1.07°C</a> in June 2023, up from 0.93°C in May. This rise is nearly the same as the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/07/june-global-surface-templs-up-0142-from.html">0.142°C rise</a> reported for TempLS. <br /><br />
As with TempLS, June was by a large margin the warmest June in the record - next was 0.92°C in 2022. As mentioned in my <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/07/maintained-table-of-global-temperatures.html">last post</a>, I now have on the data page a maintained table of months in descending order to facilitate these comparisons. Here is the GISS monthly average anomaly:
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/07/gisshot.png" width=800 /></img>
<br /><br />
There seems to be ongoing warming, if you let your eye follow the red "23" squares. Since the annual to date is close to the hottest ever, it is likely 2023 will end up on top.
<br /><br /> As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.
<br /><!--#@_M3--><a name='more'></a><br />
Here is GISS V4<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/06/gissjun.png" />
<br /><br />
And here is the TempLS V4 FEM-based plot
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/06/Junmap0.png" width="800" />
<br /><!--more-->
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run for seven years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/">here</a>, and I post the monthly averages <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>. <br />
The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M3-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-5583784424981792672023-07-11T19:20:00.017+10:002023-07-12T06:17:57.316+10:00Maintained table of global temperatures listed in order for each calendar month.
I currently post automatically updated monthly temperatures in various forms on a <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html">Moyhu page</a>. In fact, I keep the updated database of various major sources as a CSV file here:<br />
<a href="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/07/month.csv">https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/07/month.csv</a><br />
It is the record as it stood in that month; just make the obvious changes to the date in the URL to get other months.
<br /><br />
One of my tasks in <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/07/june-global-surface-templs-up-0142-from.html">posting the monthly temperatures</a> is to look up where that month stood in the ranking of months. I have now made a <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#hottest">maintained table</a> which shows temperatures in ranked order (top 10) for each calendar month, for <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">TempLS</a> and various other sources (scroll down). It also shows the annual average (to date, for the current year). Columns contain a two digit number of the year, and then the anomaly average, in whatever anomaly base is used by the source. TempLS is 1961-90.
<br /><br />
<iframe height="400" src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/pages/latest/T/hot.html" style="background-color: white;position:absolute" width="930">
</iframe><br /><br /><br /><br />
<img height="400" width=0>
</img><br />
<br /><br />
<br /><br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-72373475305653655662023-07-09T08:12:00.003+10:002023-07-09T08:12:51.065+10:00June global surface TempLS up 0.142°C from May.
The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">TempLS FEM</a> anomaly (1961-90 base) was 0.95°C in June, up from 0.808°C in May. It was the warmest June in the record, well ahead of 0.801°C in 2020. The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR">NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index</a> rose by 0.09°C.
<br /> <br />
Most of the world was warm, with a cooler band across the southern US, and in western Russia. The Pacific W of Peru was warm.
<br /> <br />
Here is the temperature map, using now the <a hrcef="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2022/06/moving-to-fem-variant-of-templs-global.html">FEM-based map</a> of anomalies.
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<div id="PxJune"></div>
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<br />
<br /><br />As always, the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_24.html">3D globe map</a> gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">ongoing report</a> which is updated daily.<br />
<br />
<script type="text/javascript">var i="#@_M2"</script>
<!--#@_M2-->
<a name='more'></a>
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run since 2011. The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M2-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
<br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-38814192297207084872023-06-15T05:55:00.002+10:002023-06-15T05:57:05.889+10:00GISS May global temperature down by 0.06°C from April.
The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly <a href="https://twitter.com/NASAGISS/status/1668996727905370112"> was 0.94°C</a> in May 2023, down from 1.00°C in April. This fall is a little more than the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/06/may-global-surface-templs-down-0028.html">0.028°C fall</a> reported for TempLS. <br /><br />
As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.
<br /><!--#@_M3--><a name='more'></a><br />
Here is GISS V4<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/06/gissmay.png" />
<br /><br />
And here is the TempLS V4 FEM-based plot
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/05/Maymap0.png" width="800" />
<br /><!--more-->
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run for seven years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/">here</a>, and I post the monthly averages <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>. <br />
The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M3-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-8733694275980236772023-06-06T06:12:00.000+10:002023-06-06T06:12:09.596+10:00May global surface TempLS down 0.028°C from April.
The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">TempLS FEM</a> anomaly (1961-90 base) was 0.829°C in May, down from 0.857°C in April. It was still the second warmest May in the record. The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR">NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index</a> rose by 0.014°C. Both changes were very small
<br /> <br />
Almost all the world was warm, with a cold spot in India, north into central Asia, and also somewhat in Australia. Most of Canada was very warm. The Pacific W of Peru is starting to warm.
<br /> <br />
Here is the temperature map, using now the <a hrcef="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2022/06/moving-to-fem-variant-of-templs-global.html">FEM-based map</a> of anomalies.
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<div id="PxMay"></div>
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<br />
<br /><br />As always, the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_24.html">3D globe map</a> gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">ongoing report</a> which is updated daily.<br />
<br />
<script type="text/javascript">var i="#@_M2"</script>
<!--#@_M2-->
<a name='more'></a>
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run since 2011. The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M2-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
<br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-51407272641248842522023-05-13T16:05:00.000+10:002023-05-13T16:05:15.735+10:00GISS April global temperature down by 0.2°C from March.
The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly <a href="https://twitter.com/NASAGISS/status/1657037929322102785"> was 1.00°C</a> in April 2023, down from 1.23°C in March. This fall is a little more than the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/05/april-global-surface-templs-down-0158.html">0.158°C fall</a> reported for TempLS. <br /><br />
As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.
<br /><!--#@_M3--><a name='more'></a><br />
Here is GISS V4<br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/05/gissapr.png" />
<br /><br />
And here is the TempLS V4 FEM-based plot
<br /><br />
<img src="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/04/Aprmap0.png" width="800" />
<br /><!--more-->
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run for seven years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/">here</a>, and I post the monthly averages <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>. <br />
The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M3-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
<br /><br />
Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-34160110295248785542023-05-08T06:08:00.001+10:002023-05-08T06:08:23.698+10:00April global surface TempLS down 0.158°C from March.
The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">TempLS FEM</a> anomaly (1961-90 base) was 0.859°C in April, down from 1.017°C in March. It was still the fourth warmest April in the record, and the second warmest month since October 2021. The <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR">NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index</a> fell even more by 0.332°C.
<br /> <br />
Almost all the world was warm, with cold spots just in Alaska, central Siberia down to India, and some of mid west USA. Nowhere was very warm, except a patch in Antarctica.
<br /> <br />
Here is the temperature map, using now the <a hrcef="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2022/06/moving-to-fem-variant-of-templs-global.html">FEM-based map</a> of anomalies.
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<div id="PxApril"></div>
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<br /><br />As always, the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_24.html">3D globe map</a> gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">ongoing report</a> which is updated daily.<br />
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<script type="text/javascript">var i="#@_M2"</script>
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<a name='more'></a>
<p style="color: #aa0000;">This post is part of a series that has now run since 2011. The TempLS mesh data is reported <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#mesh">here</a>, and the recent history of monthly readings is <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L1">here</a>. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#Drag">here</a> which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/a-guide-to-global-temperature-program.html">here</a>. <br /><br />
The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page_24.html">here</a>. <br /><br /><!--#@_M2-->
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:</p><ol>
<li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?NCEP%20Monthly">NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?TempLS%20Monthly">TempLS report</a>
</li><li><a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/moyhu-index.html?GISS%20Monthly">GISS report and comparison with TempLS</a>
</li></ol><p></p>
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Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-55609388168433752642023-04-20T20:31:00.013+10:002023-04-27T14:08:29.210+10:00Hourly modelling of conversion of USA48 to wind/solar, with costing and optimisation - Updated.<p style="color: #660044;">Update note - I made an error which inflated the build costs of S&W by 8.76. That greatly inflated the resulting optima, by about that amount. I have rewritten this post; you can see the original <a href="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/04/moyhu_ Hourly modelling of conversion of USA48 to wind_solar, with costing and optimisation.">here</a>.<br />
</p><p style="color: #004400;">
Update 2 (two hours later). I realised that I used the mean GW to cost, rather than the built faceplate GW. I have fixed that; optima are approximately doubled.
</p>
<p style="color: #444400;">Update 3 (four hours later). I realised that The first estimate wasn't bad, because I had multiplied the cost by 3 for the capacity factor. Working with faceplate installed, that isn't appropriate. So it's back in the range of 5-6 $T.</p><div><p><span style="color: #ff00fe;">Update 4. Not a mistake this time, but an improvement. I've costed wind and solar separately, with wind the same at $1.647/W, but solar is cheaper at $1/Watt. This is preparatory to improve by changing proportion of solar, as per next post. The difference here is small , saving maybe $0.5T.</span></p></div><div><br /></div>In a <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/03/cfact-says-net-zero-is-impossible.html">post earlier this month</a>, I looked at a currently circulating claim, most recently from CFACT, that replacement of fossil fuel (FF) generation with wind and solar (W&S) would require impossible amounts of storage. Costs of hundreds of trillions of dollars were mentioned. That earlier posts has links.
<br /><br />
The original analysis of hourly IEA data was done by Ken Gregory, of Friends of Science. I pointed out the problem, which was that they had allowed too little generation capacity, so the hypothetical grid was relying on storage to cope with annual fluctuations in demand. No system, FF or otherwise, can reasonably do this. You must have enough generation to cover the annual peak periods.
<br /><br />
So I adapted Ken's spreadsheet to allow variable amounts of generation. Bringing it up to adequate levels hugely reduces the storage requirement. Building more quickly makes it very small.
<br /><br />
Now increasing the generation also has costs, but nothing like the huge costs of Gregory and CFACT. A small number of trillions. The US grid is big business.
<br /><br />
A commenter at WUWT, Old Cocky, suggested that costing would be interesting. Being the sum of a rising cost of build with rapidly falling storage costs, there must be an optimum. Ken's model was that W&S would increase proportionally (factor H) to meet the demand formerly met by FF, while nuclear and hydro would remain unchanged (and so not in the analysis). You can analyse hourly data for just one year to get the minimum storage that would get through the year.
<h4>Data collection</h4>
I have recently been able to extend the data to the four years 2019-2022, which seem to be all the full years IEA has. It would be tempting to use a multi-year set, but the problem is that wind has been growing rapidly, so if the expansion of 2019 is sufficient, then later years are wastefully more than sufficient. I could have tested one year of wind on four years of variable demand, but that misses the point, which is looking for the effect of rare bad wind episodes.
<h4>Costs</h4>
There are basically just two costs that matter for this optimisation, and I've used Ken's numbers, for which he gives the source. The capital cost of building W&S is set at $1647 per KW. And for storage, $347 per KWh. To cost the build, we need the currently installed base (to be multiplied by H). I had to look that up in Wikipedia; the values (for all USA, W&S) for 2019-2022 are 0.1821 0.2190 0.2563 0.2813 TW.
<h4>Optimising</h4>
A small change from the last post (and KG). H is now the ratio of new (not old+new) W&S to old W&S. So values are one less than in that post.
<br /><br />
As shown in that post, the storage requirement and cost reduces rapidly (exponentially) with H. But the build cost increases linearly with H. So somewhere there is an optimum. Here is a table of computed values around the optimum, for the years 2019-2022. The first column is H, the second is minimum storage needed, computed as in the <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/03/cfact-says-net-zero-is-impossible.html">earlier post</a>. The third is the build cost in $B, formed by multiplying the faceplate GW by the cost per GW. The fourth is storage (col 2) multiplied by storage cost/TWh, and the fifth is the sum, for which we want the minimum (bolded).
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For any H, as years progress the build cost increases and the storage cost decreases. This is because the base W&S level is increasing. So the optimum moves to lower H. Y
<br /><br />
<table>
<tbody><tr><td> </td><td width="120"> </td><td width="140"> </td><td width="120"> </td><td width="120">
</td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>Storage TWh</td><td>Cost(H*S&W) $T</td><td>Storage $T</td><td>Sum Costs $T
</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>26.551</td><td>3.005</td><td>2.521</td><td>5.526
</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>18.724</td><td>3.256</td><td>1.778</td><td>5.033
</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>15.606</td><td>3.506</td><td>1.482</td><td>4.988
</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>13.226</td><td>3.756</td><td>1.256</td><td>5.012
</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>10.935</td><td>4.007</td><td>1.038</td><td>5.045
</td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0
</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>26.514</td><td>2.983</td><td>2.372</td><td>5.354
</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>15.274</td><td>3.281</td><td>1.366</td><td>4.647
</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>9.506</td><td>3.579</td><td>0.85</td><td>4.429
</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>7.163</td><td>3.877</td><td>0.641</td><td>4.518
</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>6.091</td><td>4.176</td><td>0.545</td><td>4.72
</td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0
</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>33.56</td><td>3.442</td><td>3.13</td><td>6.571
</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>17.073</td><td>3.786</td><td>1.592</td><td>5.378
</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>9.635</td><td>4.13</td><td>0.899</td><td>5.029
</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>7.142</td><td>4.474</td><td>0.666</td><td>5.14
</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>6.153</td><td>4.818</td><td>0.574</td><td>5.392
</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0
</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>18.396</td><td>3.354</td><td>1.751</td><td>5.105
</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>8.13</td><td>3.727</td><td>0.774</td><td>4.501
</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>3.302</td><td>4.1</td><td>0.314</td><td>4.414
</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>1.967</td><td>4.473</td><td>0.187</td><td>4.66
</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>1.117</td><td>4.845</td><td>0.106</td><td>4.952
</td></tr></tbody></table>
<h4>Discussion</h4>
The amounts are much less that the hundreds of trillions in the CFACT report, and now around $5T (US GDP is about $22T). How should we think about this? Well, electricity generation is big business, and this represents renewal over, say, 27 years. That would have cost a lot in any technology, and of course produces a system with much reduced fuel costs. But here are some factors which might increase or reduce it
<ul>
<li> The obvious big thing that might increase it is the need to be more conservative about storage. The criterion for each year was to get through that year with storage not drained. There will be worse years.
</li><li> The obvious big thing that might decrease it is continued reduction in costs, which have been coming down a lot.
</li><li>Another big reduction comes from the artificial requirement that the dips in W&S that drain storage are proportional to H. That would be true if the original sites were each expanded by that factor. But new sites will be found, and their diversity will smooth out the dips in W&S.
</li><li> A very big reduction comes if cheaper forms of storage than battery are used, as they will be, particularly pumped storage.
</li><li>In Europe at least, a big reduction will come from improved interconnection, allowing trade in surpluses, and also rationalisation in location. It is much better to spend on solar in Spain (or Morocco) than in Germany. And in Mexico rather than Maine.
</li><li>
The model assumed hydro would continue as before. But there will be a continued market-led shift of hydro to drain dams only when W&S are low (and prices high). This has the effect of a big storage increase.
</li></ul>
Incidentally, storage costs at the optima are less than build costs.
<h4>Conclusion</h4>
As before, the very high levels of storage in the reports by Ken Gregory and CFACT are ridiculous. You have to optimise, and then the costs come down to manageable levels (about $5T) as capital cost to replace FF with W&S and battery storage. And there are many ways of ameliorating them.
<h4>Postscript</h4>
I have added the csv files for each of the years 2019-2022 to the <a href="https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/2023/03/gregory.zip">earlier zipfile</a>.
<br /><br />
I thought about ways to test all years in a continuous optimisation. The problem is that W&S has been increasing rapidly, so how should it be expanded. If uniformly, the storage troubles of 2019 will dominate. There isn't any point in using one W&S year expanded for 2019-22; the point is to test the variability of W&S over four years.
<br /><br />
I tried detrending W&S (and FF), so 2019 was in effect pre-expanded. But this was still not good enough; 2019 was still the limiting year, because exaggerated expansion leads to exaggerated variability. So I'm stuck, for the moment, with doing individual years.
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Nick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.com14