tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post88313098414998740..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: JAXA Ice extent and JSNick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-3464275269622426512011-09-12T23:16:51.741+10:002011-09-12T23:16:51.741+10:00Sorry about the aggressive spam filter here, Bruce...Sorry about the aggressive spam filter here, Bruce. I thought it had been getting better. Tamino has done quite a lot on the ice time series, including volume - I can't remember him using ARIMA.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-57857379979232505202011-09-12T00:01:59.466+10:002011-09-12T00:01:59.466+10:00Whoops,
The last link should have been to here:
h...Whoops,<br /><br />The last link should have been to here:<br />http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b015435378c39970c-pi<br /><br />From a discussion here:<br />http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/09/piomas-august-2011.html<br /><br />If I had time I'd try an ARIMA model with lags of 1 and 12 months. The data is apparently available here:<br />http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/<br /><br />Using an exponential trend and 95% CIs, Wipneus' approach predicts a seasonally ice-free Actic between 2013 and 2019 with a mean of 2015. I suspect an ARIMA model would stretch the CI's somewhat.<br /><br />That is a long way ahead of Figure 3 here, which is the story from climate scientists:<br />http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/09/the-unnoticed-melt/<br /><br />Clearly accurate physical modeling should trump statistical extrapolation, but climate scientists seem to consistently underestimate the response of the cryosphere.Bruce Tabornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-65065429813416530412011-09-11T22:35:06.172+10:002011-09-11T22:35:06.172+10:00Thanks, Bruce.
I agree volume is the measure of h...Thanks, Bruce.<br /><br />I agree volume is the measure of heat needed for melting, so it is very important. Extent has its place in the physics because of feedback. An early extent loss means more sunlight absorbed in the Arctic over the summer, which means more extent (and volume) loss, etc.<br /><br />I'm not sure the line in the Piomass plot you linked to is meant as a prediction. They may be making the same point as you - the loss is accelerating.<br /><br />I think your last link is a repeat.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-25426039316258133792011-09-03T05:06:40.865+10:002011-09-03T05:06:40.865+10:00Thanks, RNThanks, RNNick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-2827387291743946382011-09-02T06:19:34.866+10:002011-09-02T06:19:34.866+10:00Cool, I like it.Cool, I like it.Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.com